Mnt Goat Monday Update - "Quick Update – What are we waiting for" - Part 1 of 2

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Mnt Goat Monday Update - "Quick Update – What are we waiting for" - Part 1 of 2

Post  Admin on Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:37 pm



12/21/2015


UU6848 – “Quick Update – What are we waiting for?”  by Mnt Goat

Hello Everyone,

This period there is not much news from Iraq. But I firmly believe we are about to get a flood of information very soon. In today’s news letter I review with you what are still looking for in order to see the RV.

I also will address many questions I recently received from investors and want to tell you now I am not an attorney, a certified financial advisors or any professional advisor of any kind. I am simply giving you my opinion in all my news letters and stating to you what Iraq themselves have told us in their news articles and private conversations. 

We know the lower denominations have NOT “officially” been allowed to be put in circulation as the CBI has not yet released them. How could they since they have no value and would be more a hindrance to the economy than a benefit at this point in time. 

Would you like to take a dollar out of your wallet to buy a dozen eggs or bring a basket full of the new lower denoms to the market to buy the same dozen eggs? And this is only a dozen eggs worth about a dollar. How would they handle buying a house? Would they have to rent a UHaul truck? …lol…lol…I rest my case…lol…lol… So can you see how allegations of the lower denominations being already allowed in circulation (without a significant increase in value) is just so ridiculous?

Iraq is meeting their commitments to pass needed legislature and the beginning of the new year seems to be creeping upon us. 

We have great expectations for the first part of the first quarter of 2016 as our next new RV window and it is just around the corner. Hang in just a little longer all you dinar investors. This IQD currency reform is about to come to a conclusion, at least the part that we want….lol….

But let us not take any thread of information and turn it into any hype and lie to anyone about the timing of this RV.

Some of these conference calls keep telling me the RV is done already, is this true?
NO! – The RV did not happen and we are NOT now “just waiting our turn” to exchange. This is all just misinformation to justify these early, illegal exchanges being allowed by the UST at the banks. Everyone involved in this CORRUPTION will be dealt with I can assure you of this. 

How simply foolish and ignorant of a statement like this anyone can make to say we “are just waiting our turn to exchange” !  Seems they have been sipping on that cool-aid again….lol…lol…They have been saying this now for more than a month already on their next info calls. They also keep telling you their next call is going to be their “celebration” call. Really!  I thought their last 20 calls were going to be their celebration call and it goes on and on….Will they ever learn?  How foolish ! 

I might also add that I am once again seeing you so called intel “gurus” putting words in my mouth. You can read can’t you? 

Then go back and re-read my news letters since June 2015 (
[url=http://www.dinarrecaps.com/our-blog/category/mnt goat/18]LINK[/url]). Not once have I said there was going to be an RV and I am insulted and disgusted with the falsifying of my information thus self-serving my information for your own benefit at the expense of others feelings and expectations. If anyone wants to hear what I have to say concerning the RV, please go read (or re-read) my news letters for yourself. This is the only true source of my information. I might add you have to read the ENTIRE document and not just braise over it, then take snippets out of it, draw your own conclusions and then remark on them to everyone. Your conclusions are not necessarily my conclusions.

Bank screens, memos to banks, speeches in the mosques, tickers across the bottom of Iraq TV screens tell us very little and is NOT confirmation of anything nor can be used as verification of anything. These events have never, ever proved reliable in the past and are just rumors.
I have been told to watch carefully now what the CBI says and does. This is where our attention should not focus. This is being told to me now by the CBI themselves.

So where do you think we should be focusing now?

So to all you so called intel “gurus” and fine dinarions out there - I wish you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year! 

I might add to you so called intel “gurus” out there - good luck with all your lame predictions and non-factual evidence for you RV windows. But for me I chose to go on FACTS, that’s NO Hype, NO Rumors, only FACTS.

Today’s News

Today is Monday December 21st and yes we are fully now entering the fourth week of December already and still no RV.  Oh I thought every “guru”’ was saying the RV was done? Really? They said this years ago and now they say it again. How many RVs did we have already…lol…lol…So why can’t we go the banks?

But they justify their latest lame information and tell us we are now  “just have to wait our turn to exchange”.  What? What does this mean?

Seems they don’t even know that, if this was true, the IMF would never allow this kind of practice for rollout. NEVER, NEVER HAPPEN ! This would be totally illegal, bogus, ridiculous and improper and it makes your head spin that anyone could even BEGIN TO THINK or believe never mind about pumping this kind of information out to you fine dinarians. How irresponsible can they be?

So let’s get on to some real news and forget about all this garbage intel we are being told. 

Update: Currency Reform

We still await for the “official” word from the CBI to allow the distribution of the new lower denominations. We know this must first be accompanied with a significant increase in value and we are told it will be a 1:1 par value with the US dollar.

This is NOT the RV but an inflation adjustment and only an incentive to  “dedollarize” the economy and reverse the trend in demand from the US dollar to the Iraqi dinar thus increase the demand for the new lower denominations. This would thus allow Iraq to withdraw or “de-dollarize” their economy as they would suck up US dollars are replace them with the lower denominations. This would happen because the citizens would migrate towards the new dinar since it would be worth more than the dollar.

Do they need a very significant increase in order to do this?
NO! All they need in-country is a value to the new dinar to be just over a dollar to create this incentive. 

Is this the RV we have been waiting for?
NO! – this move to a 1:1 par with the US dollar is just an inflationary measure they will undertake. The full RV ($4.00+) we are waiting for will come later in about 7-14 days and will depend on how stable the economy is and how this whole process works out. It may take longer or it may be shorter.

Is this 1:1 a float and we must wait for the value to rise from $1.00+ to the $4.00+ before we see the RV?
NO! This initial process will NOT be put on an “official” float as many so called intel “gurus” will try to convince you that it is. The time to the full RV has no significance to any float. How can it since the currency still not even be on the exchanges at this time. 

So when can we go to the bank and exchange our 3 zero notes?
First let me say it again - We may never realize this $1.00+  rate at the banks since the new rate will not  yet even be on the global exchanges (thus be able to go to the banks and exchange). The IQD will not be reintroduced to the global exchanges until after the full blown RV $4.00+ occurs which will come later.

Will we see the RV before Xmas?
I personally believe we may see the 1:1 value pop out as the lower denominations are circulated sometime before now and the end of the year. But I do not expect to be at the bank before sometime until mid to late January 2016. I have already told you why this is the timing. 

Will us so called “internet” conference call investors be privileged to exchange prior to the final RV?

NO ABSOLUTELY NOT!. Everyone holding these 3 zero notes outside of Iraq will exchange at the same time as the rates show up in the global currency exchanges. This has nothing to do with bank screens or any other secret bank currency books at the banks. It must be legal and on the global exchanges prior to the banks allowing the general public to exchange this currency.

I am telling you nothing new here. I have explained out answers to all these questions over and over again to you in my previous news letters. This is the state we are in and we just have to wait.

The fact that the budget is moving along now is great news. Now we need the National Guard and Amnesty laws and I do not believe we will see any next move in the currency reform until we get these laws – at least I would be very surprised if we did….lol…lol…

So what pops out in the news today. Low and behold the CBI is now starting the process to lessen the demand for the dollar by charging more for them. They are also preparing for the final wind-down of the money auctions.

The article below is telling us the CBI is making it more expensive for the banks to purchase the dollars. On the surface it may seem like they are devaluing the dinar but in the long term it is telling us they are about to allow the lower denoms to be released in circulation and gives us a new rate. Remember I told you this is an inflation adjustment rate since they must raise the rate of the dinar when they pop out these new lower denominations. But this new rate of 1: 1 will NOT be gradual, NOT be on a float and is NOT the ultimate RV we are looking for or can go to the bank over. Can you remember this?

Article Begins

IRAQ CENTRAL BANK DEVALUES DINAR BY 1.37 PERCENT VERSUS DOLLAR      

December 21, 2015

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Iraq’s central bank has increased the sale price of U.S. dollars to banks and currency exchange companies by 16 dinars, or 1.37 percent, as the government seeks to compensate a decline in oil revenue, a government official and the central bank said.

The sale price of the dollar “has been adjusted to 1,182 dinars,” the central bank said in a statement on Monday.
The previous price was 1,166 dinars for a dollar, Mudher Saleh, a top economic adviser to Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and former deputy central bank governor, told Reuters.

“This is a small adjustment, it’s not a devaluation. It will increase government revenue to meet local needs,” said Saleh.

A global oversupply of crude oil has pushed prices to below $40 a barrel from more than $100 a barrel in June 2014. The government depends on oil sales for 95 percent of its revenue.


Article Ends

 
 
Mnt Goat Monday Update - "Quick Update – What are we waiting for" - Part 2 of 2
12/21/2015
 
Update: Needed Laws

So in my last news letter (
LINK) I brought you news of Iraq's parliament passing the 2016 budget. The President of the Republic is expected to ratify the budget and so we wait for news that this happened. 

I also told you that there is also oil being pumped out of Kurkirk providence, revenue that Baghdad may never see since Kurdistan made a deal and is allowed to sell this oil on their own (new oil agreement).  In return they only receive 13% oil revenue shares now from Baghdad. It is a better deal for all involved. So from this article it is obvious some HCL deal was made or else they never would have completed and passed the budget.

Funny how another article came out over the weekend contradicting previous news the finance committee told us previously. Now they are telling us Kurdistan is getting the 17% oil revenue shares. See article below.  So what is going on?

To eliminate any confusion in your mind remember the 13% share is for the Kirkuk oil ONLY because they are being allowed to pump more than the allowed government quota of 300,00 barrels per day as set for Kirkuk. But this is for this region only. Now we see a meeting set for today to discuss what just happened in the budget to allow only 13% for this region. Obviously some politicians from Kurdistan were not in favor of this 13% when it came out in the budget.

I quote directly from the article – “share according to the oil agreement between Baghdad and Erbil province, which is required to hand over 550 000 barrels per day of production (250 000 barrels) and the production of Kirkuk (300 000 barrels) AGAINST THE PAYMENT OF ITS SHARE OF THE BUDGET BY 17%.

This also tells us HCL is done and it has been done prior to forming the 2016 budget. Why else would they be disputing the 13% if it was not already law to be 17%?

Can you remember this? Don’t let there be any doubt in your mind that HCL is done! They just told us indirectly that it is done. A Golden Nugget for us today….lol…..

Can you see how they tell us something and unless we are paying close attention we can miss it. Sometimes even the heading on the article is not indicative of the information they are to tell us in the article.

Article Begins

GOVERNMENT OF THE TERRITORY TO MEET TOMORROW TO DISCUSS THE FINANCIAL CRISIS      

Economy / Baghdad
Announced the Minister of Environmental Affairs in the province, Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahim, the Minister of the Territory Council will be held on Monday, dedicated to the discussion of the financial crisis session.
He said Abdul Rahim in a press statement, he said that "the Cabinet meeting to be held on Monday, will be dedicated to discuss the crisis Finance in the Kurdistan region and how to solve them.

"He pointed out that" the Council of Ministers in the Kurdistan region has formed a committee to follow up the reform projects, and will be talking about the problems that citizens faced by the financial crisis.

"It is noteworthy that, the Federal House of Representatives voted last Wednesday, approving the budget law Federal Finance in the next 2016, including the Kurdistan region's share amounting to 17%.

The Article IX / I of the budget law: determine the share of the Kurdistan region of 17% of the total actual expenditures are paid from the Federal Ministry of Finance and the approval of the Prime Minister and identified this share according to the oil agreement between Baghdad and Erbil province, which is required to hand over 550 000 barrels per day of production (250 000 barrels) and the production of Kirkuk (300 000 barrels) against the payment of its share of the budget by 17%.


Article Ends

So now what pops out in the news in Iraq? An article by MP for the coalition of state law who is telling us that this compromise in dealing with  Kirkuk oil, was to get the budget passed, but is not the final solution to the disputed areas of Iraq.

I like this article (see below) because it is telling the true status of Article 140. Another Golden Nugget for us today.

We have not directly heard much about this lately but we should have realized that the oil deal struck last week with the budget is all interconnected with it. Is this PM just complaining? Do they need a law to implement article 140? This PM makes a good case to the issue they do need a law and what they just did in the budget is a case in point.

He says and I quote from the article – “ there is still deadlock over the disputed areas is the legislation and the application of Article 140 of the constitution”.

He also says and I quote –  "must be legislation and the application of this article to avoid future problems and aggravation."

He also says and I quote – “the entry of the Peshmerga forces to these areas does not mean it's settled and become part of the Kurdistan region,"

So contrary to what many of your so called intel “gurus” may tell you that article 140 is all done I have to tell you that it isn’t and will not be until we see some legislation on it from the council of ministers and then passed by parliament. This is still a touchy subject matter with many politicians.

Does this effect their ability to get Article 8 of UN charter (their currency returned to them)? 

NO – I do not see this impacting the RV since they have recognized these disputed regions belonging to Kurdistan and are acting accordingly. I believe this is sufficient. Do they really need formal legislation to implement article 140 since this is going to be a point of contention. This legislation may happen someday to quite everyone down but I do not believe it is required.. 


Article Begins
   
DEPUTY FOR THE LAW: THE ACTIVATION OF ARTICLE 140 "SOLUTION" TO THE CRISIS ONLY DISPUTED AREAS      

Special - scales News
MP for the coalition of state law that fall under the full Zaidi National Alliance, said on Saturday that al-Faisal, the only resolve a deadlock over the disputed areas is the legislation and the application of Article 140 of the constitution.

He said al-Zaidi's / scales News /, that "Article 140 of the constitution is the only al-Faisal resolve a deadlock over the disputed areas with the Kurdistan region," stressing at the same time that he "must be legislation and the application of this article to avoid future problems and aggravation."

He MP for the coalition of state law, that "the entry of the Peshmerga forces to these areas does not mean it's settled and become part of the Kurdistan region," adding that "after the liberation of regions will return to the government in Baghdad after the application of Article 140 of the Constitution."

It is said that "the security and defense committee member Abbas al-Khuzai parliamentary revealed to / scales News /, earlier, about the existence of going to visit the Kurdistan region by the Committee to discuss the outstanding issues regarding the disputed areas" .

Article Ends

So at this time is appears that the news is very quite coming from Iraq. We are at this lull again and this usually means something BIG is in the making and about to pop. We are just waiting in the wings for these needed laws and the newer lower denomination currency to come to us.

What do we know:
We know they have to pass the National Guard law very soon. We know the Parties law was fully effective on Tuesday and we saw the Anti-Terrorist law now also fully implemented as it was posted in the gazette.

I described to you in a past news letter how the timing of these three new laws was very significant for establishing the needed security of Iraq for the RV going forward.

It was not coincidental on their timing and how it is all being managed so carefully. So there is one piece left to this puzzle and we wait for it. Will it come before the end of the year. I believe this last past piece (the National Guard law) must be passed in parliament and ratified prior to the USA letting the RV go.   

We were told a month ago that they would revive the Customs & Tariffs and the implement a new Income Tax   also in mid December. This did not happen since they have not yet RV’d their currency. However, we are seeing much very recent debate going back and forth on this topic from economic experts in Iraq on the need to implement both of them and how they could supplement the deficit in the budget. So we know the pressure is on to do something and soon.

Last week we witnessed the passing of the 2016 budget and the compromises being made with Kurdistan in oil revenue sharing from the Kirkuk region from 17% (as required from Article 140 of their constitution) down to 13% (in return for holding on to full revenues beyond government quotas) for Kirkut region oil. So once the budget was published, we saw rumbles of Article 140 pop into the news once again. It is all so very logical and expected at this point.


Update: Fighting ISIS

Kurdish forces backed by coalition air strikes have repulsed the most serious attack by Islamic State group in Iraq in five month.

Among the sites targeted by IS was Bashiqa, where Turkish forces have recently been training Iraqi Kurds, sparking a row with the Iraqi government.

Meanwhile at the UN the 15-member Security Council adopted a resolution aimed at starving IS of funds.

It urges countries to "move vigorously and decisively to cut the flow of funds" to IS, such as by preventing its smuggling of oil and antiquities.

One more item today:

Let’s not forget to keep praying for the success of THESE IRAQI AND COALITION SOLDIERS. I believe their success is in part some of the acceleration of the process we are now witnessing. 

“Lord, protect Abadi and all who stand with him in righteousness, the Iraq and Coalition Soldiers who are fighting the good fight against terrorism, that they would be shielded from the enemy and would be Victorious against them! We ask that the Victory comes swiftly and healing of the Iraqi peoples and all whom have been effected by these evil doers can begin! Amen!

Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!

Peace and Luv To Ya All, 
Mnt Goat

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