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Good piece:U.S. report asking whether it is the end game for Iraq's prime minister

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Good piece:U.S. report asking whether it is the end game for Iraq's prime minister    Empty Good piece:U.S. report asking whether it is the end game for Iraq's prime minister

Post  Admin Sun Jun 03, 2012 11:39 pm



03-06-2012 | (Voice of Iraq) - Add a comment -
(Rn)

Issued the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a detailed report on the recent crisis in Iraq, noting that since for Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on the second term in December / December of the year 2010, raised doubts about the internal cohesion of the Iraqi government and its parliamentary support base.

However, the report said, "but, despite the proliferation of challenges during the past few months and declining support for the Prime Minister in Parliament, but he still retains his position, while his opponents try to work together to overthrow."

He said the criticism of the owners during the past eighteen months before the Iraqi List, backed by the year, which did not get the "National Council of the Supreme policies," the controversial, which has received promises about it, which was supposed to take over the task of supervising the National Security headed by Iyad Allawi. And intensified the confrontation between the "Iraqi" and al-Maliki after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq in December / December 2011, when the judge has issued an arrest warrant against Iraqi Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi in cases related to terrorism, in a move seen as politicized because of the timing.

The report noted the Kurdish parties (which has 43 deputies in the Iraqi Council of Representatives, the Iraqi National Movement (85 seats), and frustrated also not honoring Maliki to his promises, including the previous agreements on oil exports from Kurdistan Iraq. Joined the parties to the "Iraqi" in Maliki, demanding the expulsion from office.

But the report finds that, contrary to the challenges faced by the former al-Maliki, the Sadrists standing this time with enthusiasm as well as critics of the Prime Minister. They themselves were decisive element that allowed the owners to win the premiership, and now their backs as a "swing vote" may help the Kurds and the "Iraqi" is to topple the development of really important.

But the report seriously calls into question the Sadrists "in their quest for the removal of al-Maliki." In the beginning, have contributed to specify 15 days for the owners in late April / April in order to initiate the application of political agreements with the Kurds and "Iraq," which had been guaranteed to him winning a second term as prime minister in December / December 2010. However, they have changed their rhetoric against the Prime Minister, Mmaichir that the aim of the step was paid to change their ways, not removed from power at any cost. After the expiration of 15 days, failed to collect a second to the Iraqi leaders in Najaf under the auspices of the Sadrists in the middle of May / May instant to reach any decisive action
The report points to the Iranian-backed in the "recent escalation." Given the large influence exerted by Iran to the Sadrist movement, explaining that if they harm the interests of the Iranian activities, what allowed him to Tehran is likely to move freely between the two countries. Therefore, if Iran were actually afraid of the move to seek disqualification of al-Maliki, was used for the large amount of economic and security tools at its disposal to influence the Sadrists.

According to the report the U.S., Iran might play a chord resentment of "Iraq" and by allowing the Kurds to join the temporarily released to the pressure on al-Maliki, but without the deposed from office. Such an approach could serve several purposes. First, the crisis with al-Maliki highlighted the Iranian influence in Iraq immediately prior to the meeting of the Group of "five plus one" (the permanent members of the Security Council and Germany) on the Iranian nuclear issue held in Baghdad in the 23 May / May But the United States may be willing to hand over power in Iraq to Iran in return for concessions on the nuclear issue. Second, Iran draws, through pressure on the Sadrists, Maliki, a reminder that they are Athbz idea to become prime minister a strong and independent in his thinking too much.

It is believed the report said Maliki was able to reach an agreement with his deputy belonging to the Movement of Iraq, Saleh al-Mutlaq, who believes that his return to the government is imminent.

The report says that al-Maliki, through these steps, taken precautions to deal with the possibility of withdrawal of confidence with him. Even if the Sadrists decided to join the campaign to topple Prime Minister, but that the strategy applied by al-Maliki to some extent succeeded in planting a division among the masses of "Iraq" and the Kurds. Has pledged about 19 members of the "Iraqi" and dissident groups by a few weeks ago to support al-Maliki, including 12 deputies are still nominally with the "Iraqi". Years, mostly deputies are not satisfied with the policies pursued by the leadership of the "Iraqi" about the disputed territories. In case of no-confidence vote, "I will not be able to" Iraq has raised more than 75 votes out of 85 deputies in the mass. It is therefore unlikely to be able to deputies the "Iraqi" and the Kurds and the Sadr bloc together to vote to withdraw confidence from the al-Maliki, even if the attendance rate is high in the House of Representatives (usually not exceeding the number of attendees in the Iraqi parliament for two-thirds).

The report finds that he must al-Maliki to know that if it can not expand his coalition and attract some of his friends new at least to a coalition of state law, led (if not to the Dawa Party) and persuade them to join formally to him, the position will remain weak in the face of challenger at home and intrigue regional at the same time, in the remainder of his second term.

Magda Optimizer

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