Formation of the new Iraqi government

The results of the Iraqi parliamentary elections confirmed the absence of a unique bloc to win, and the inevitability of the consensus between the winning blocs to form a new government; because the winning bloc in the legal sense is the majority of two-thirds of the number of seats in the Iraqi Council of Representatives; (Article 70), or that it is the winner of an absolute majority of 165 seats, which is half the number of seats of Parliament plus one; thus achieving a parliamentary majority that qualifies it to form a government on its own (Article 74). This is the legal concept of the winning mass. As for the blocs that win less than this number, they are winning a partial victory; that is, the bloc that wins a seat is considered a winner, and the winner of 164 seats is also a winner; but it is a relative victory; it needs to be merged with another bloc to achieve the alliance the government. The bloc, which alone won a number of seats more than the other blocs; it has achieved a simple majority, and this majority does not have a legal effect; if it got (164) seats.

The loser is that it has not won any seats in parliament. If we spread this concept to the contexts of the formation of powers in the systems of traditional democracies, which are linked to the rules of the ruling majority and the opposition minority, each bloc that did not receive half plus one of the seats in Parliament would be a losing mass. This also applies to candidates' votes. A person who wins one million votes gets only one seat, and the rest of his votes are automatically given to those on the list. As well as who gets (500) votes and wins a seat in the parliament votes list; it is also a winner, and the rights of the two are different and their duties and their chances within the parliament.
The inevitability of the compatibility between the seven large blocs

The number of large blocs is seven blocks, which have got (20) seats and more; which makes them more capable of the other blocs to maneuver in the field of alliances, and the formation of the largest bloc, and the formulation of the path of forming a new government, (54 seats), and the alliance of the "conquest" led by Hadi Amiri (48 seats), and the coalition, "victory" headed by Haider Abadi (42 seats), and a coalition of "State of Law" headed by Nuri al-Maliki (25 seats) Headed by Massoud Barzani (25 seats), the "National Coalition" headed by Iyad Allawi (21) seats, and "stream of wisdom" headed by Ammar al-Hakim (20) Qaada). The greater the number of seats in the bloc by a large margin with the other blocs; the chances will be greater than others relatively in the composition of the nucleus of the largest bloc, and influence the selection of candidate for the presidency of the new government; to seize control of the political process and the movement of the state. Which is not enjoyed by any of the seven large blocs; especially that the difference between the first three blocks (Ascension, conquest and victory) a small difference.

In 2010, the National Coalition headed by Iyad Allawi won (91) seats, compared to (89) seats for the coalition of the rule of law under the chairmanship of Nuri al-Maliki, Allawi announced then that his bloc won the Because the coalition did not win the elections; it is only two seats higher than the coalition of the rule of law, which has no legal effect at all; because the legal effect of the formation of the largest bloc before Enter the first session of the new parliament, not the mass that harvested the most number Of the seats in the elections (Federal Court Opinion in May 2010). Therefore, the coalition of the rule of law with the United National Coalition and formed the largest bloc. Even the largest bloc, with 154 seats, was not the winning bloc in the legal sense; it needed 11 additional seats to form an absolute majority (half plus one). In the result, the bloc that won (91) was unable to put its candidate for prime minister; it was the prime minister of the bloc that got less seats because it had preceded the date of the first meeting and allied with another bloc to form the largest bloc.

In 2014, the State of Law coalition won 92 seats; it reached 103 seats after joining small blocs immediately after the announcement of the results. It represented the largest bloc; however, it did not succeed in obtaining the chance to nominate its candidate for prime minister. The path of assigning the alternative candidate and forming the government at the time was based on a complex of consensus. Therefore, the one who determines the path of nomination and formation of the Iraqi prime minister is not the number of votes obtained by the candidate or the winning blocs in partial victory, or the number of seats; rather, the consensuses and approvals, which are not limited to the number of seats of the winning blocs, but also include the visions presented by the references Najaf and Tehran And the State of America.

The reason for the complexity of the formation of the Iraqi government this time; is the convergence of the number of seats of the winning blocs large; in contrast to the results of the elections in 2010 and 2014, which was less complicated than the results of the election stalemate. In 2010 there were only three major blocs: the State of Law Coalition, the National Coalition and the Unified National Coalition. In 2014, the difference between the rule of law bloc headed by Nuri al-Maliki and other winning blocs was large; the cluster of liberals under the auspices of Muqtada al-Sadr, the second bloc in the number of seats; 34 (seats), that the difference between them and the first bloc (state law) was (58) seats.

Therefore, the alliance between some or all of these blocks to achieve the following:

1 - Formation of the largest bloc; to be assigned to the candidate to form a government; which means that the first step in the path of consensus will remain complicated; because of the small distances between the competitors.

2 - Formation of the absolute parliamentary majority: (165) seats; with the aim of electing the Speaker of Parliament and his deputies, and the Prime Minister in the first round. It needs to be allied large blocs all within the parliament.

3 - Formation of the two-thirds parliamentary majority: (219) seats; with the aim of electing the President of the Republic in the first round. It needs a very broad alliance of all large and medium-sized blocs.
Measures to calculate the popularity of winning blocks

Based on the results, the popularity of the winning Shiite blocs can be calculated against the results of the 2010 and 2014 elections as follows:

1 - the Islamic Dawa Party; got with its allies in the "coalition of state law," headed by Nuri al - Maliki in 2010 to two million and (800) thousand votes; (89) seats. The share of the "mass of the call" (preachers and supporters) is about one million votes and about (40) seats. In 2014, the coalition won three million and 200 thousand votes; 92 seats, an increase of about 400,000 votes and only three seats. In which the share of the Dawa Party increased from a single vote to about one million and (300) thousand votes; including (720) thousand votes for Nuri al-Maliki alone. And then joined small blocs and independent deputies of the coalition of the rule of law immediately after the announcement of the results; bringing the members to (103), the second largest coalition in the history of the Iraqi parliament; after the "National Coalition consolidated" which won (128) seats in 2005. The number of seats Parliamentary bloc in 2014 to 54 seats out of the seats in the rule of law, the largest party bloc in the history of the Iraqi parliament after 2003.

In the 2018 elections, the "State of Law Coalition" split into three coalitions, the results of which were:

A "coalition of the rule of law" headed by Nuri al-Maliki: he got (750) thousand votes, and (25) seats.

B - "Victory Coalition" headed by Haider Abadi: won a million and (400) thousand votes, and (42) seats.

The "Fatah Alliance" headed by Hadi al-Amiri: the votes of one million and (550) thousand votes, and seats (48) seats.

Thus, the total votes of the Dawa (State of Law and Victory) lists two million and 250 thousand votes and the number of seats (67) seats. The votes of the Fatah Alliance, the former ally of the Dawa Party under the State of Law Coalition, are the sum total of the three branches of the State of Law Coalition: three million, 800 thousand, and 115 seats. An increase of 650,000 votes and an increase of 23 seats compared to the results of the coalition in 2014.

But if we delete the seats won by the Sunni candidates in the framework of the "Alliance of the conquest" and "coalition victory," the number of (approximately 15), as well as deleted movements seats were not engaged in the "coalition of state law" in the elections in 2014; Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which won 12 seats, the Virtue Party, which won 8 seats, and other movements that won five seats, 75 seats will remain for the three branches of the State of Law Coalition. (17) seats, compared to what happened to the Dawa Party and its allies in 2014.

The results of the "coalition of state law" at the expense of the Dawa Party, and for the benefit of his allies. Thus, talking about the number of seats of the Dawa Party and its allies in these elections is no longer a productive reality for four main factors:

The percentage of the popularity of the Dawa Party leaders and their organizations has decreased significantly; in 2014 it reached about one million and 300 thousand votes, but it dropped to about 400 thousand votes in 2018, which is about 65% less. General Party Nuri al-Maliki received the highest percentage of votes at the level of Iraq, as well as the head of the political bureau in the party Haider Abadi the third highest percentage of votes at the level of Iraq.

Second: Almost 12 of the seats of the "Victory Coalition" are for its Sunni allies, 8 seats for the Virtue Party and 10 seats for other parties seeking positions in the government. They do not want to sacrifice their benefits in order to remain president. Minister for a candidate from the Dawa Party, whether Haider Abadi or others. Thus, the real entitlement of the Dawa party and Haidar al-Abadi within the "victory coalition" (12) seats no more. The "coalition of state law" is a cohesive bloc, all calculated for the Dawa party and Nuri al-Maliki. Thus, the total of what the Dawa Party and its supporters will win in the coalition of "victory" and "state of law" (37) seats only.

Third: The number of regular Dawa members who won the elections in 2018 did not exceed (15) members; most of them in the coalition of state law; after the number of approximately 35 members in regular in 2014; that is, the preachers lost nearly 60% Of their seats; compared to their results in 2014. Which means to ask non-preachers and their supporters within the coalition of victory or within the coalitions if the alliance; the real participation in the decision and in the main gains; unlike in 2014; when the Dawa Party dominated the coalition The state of law; the head of the "coalition of state law" (Nuri al-Maliki) is Secretary-General of the party And the head of the "State of Law Bloc" in Parliament (Ali Al-Adeeb), a leader of the Dawa party, and the head of the parliamentary bloc of the Dawa Party (Khalaf Abdul Samad).

Fourth: The decision of the Internal Dawa Party is no longer unified as it was in the years 2010 and 2014; it is attracted by two main axes; each has its orientation in alliance with the other blocs. The coalition of "victory" biased to the "alliance of the" and "stream of wisdom" because it is the closest to them politically, and the dispute with Nuri al-Maliki and some of the factions of the conquest of the crowd. While the "coalition of state law" to "alliance of conquest" because he is closest to him politically. This is in addition to the differences in the options to deal with regional and international axes.

Therefore, the size of the losses of the Dawa Party will double in the event that it does not join forces to form the nucleus of the largest bloc. But the political future of the party will be at stake if the prime minister loses the position of prime minister. Each wing seeks to isolate the other, and the dispute between its wings becomes a formal split. This is what the local and regional Dawa opponents are seeking.

2 - Mr. Muqtada al - Sadr 's movement: Its list in the 2010 elections won (650) thousand votes, approximately 40 seats. In 2014, the three Sadrist lists received nearly one million votes, with 34 seats. That is, the number of votes in favor of the current increased by approximately 450,000 votes, but lost six seats. In the elections of 2018, the "Sason" coalition won about one million and (500,000) votes, with 54 seats. The share of the "Al-Istiqama" Party, representing the current of Muqtada al-Sadr, is about one million and 300 thousand votes, and about 49 seats. Meanwhile, his communists, secularists and nationalists gathered about 200 thousand votes and 5 seats. . Thus, Mr. Moqtada al-Sadr's current trend has added about 250,000 votes to its popular base in 2014. But by measuring the number of seats, it has increased by 9 seats for 2010 and 15 seats for 2014.

3 - Mr. Ammar al-Hakim: This trend was one of the components of the "Islamic Supreme Council"; which entered the 2010 elections under the "United Iraqi Alliance", and got (600) thousand votes, and (19) seats. Then the Council split into two main sections; one is the Supreme Council headed by Ammar al-Hakim and the other Badr Organization led by Hadi al-Amiri, who later joined the "State of Law" coalition. In 2014, the Supreme Council formed a coalition with its allies under the name of "Citizen" and won (750) thousand votes and (29) seats; an increase of (150) thousand votes and (11) seats compared to its results in 2010 And after the split of the Supreme Council for the second time to an organization with the same name headed by Sheikh Hamam Hamoudi, and another organization called "Stream of Wisdom" headed by Mr. Ammar al-Hakim; this trend entered the elections in 2018 alone, and got (550) , And (20) seats; while the "Islamic Supreme Council" entered the elections (the second part of the coalition of citizens) in the framework of the Al-Fath (the main popular mobilization forces), and got one seat Only, which is the result of a cause for reflection and worthy of study. Thus, the seats of the parties (21) seats, and lost a total of ( seats compared to the results of 2014.

The popularity of the resistance factions represented in the "Al-Fath Alliance" (mainstream and mainstream) has increased by 200%, especially the popularity of Sheikh Qais al-Khazali Which was forced to 300%; compared to the increase in the number of seats in the elections in 2018. In contrast, the "Badr Organization" and the flow of Mr. Moqtada al-Sadr and the tide of Mr. Ammar al-Hakim on the popularity of their popularity; while decreased popularity of the Islamic Dawa Party and the Islamic Supreme Council.

It is possible to say that the votes added to the factions of the "Conquest of Fatah", and make them jump in their results in large proportions; most of the Islamic Dawa Party and his supporters, and not from the semi-permanent bloc of the followers of Muqtada al-Sadr and Ammar al-Hakim. On the other hand, the results revealed the absence of the Islamic Dawa Party to a stable constituency, and that what happened until 2014 was a popular and political gain; it was caused by Nuri al-Maliki. While the survival of another preacher at the head of the government after 2014 did not achieve any gain of the invitation; it caused the loss of most of the popular gains and political. Thus, it is not possible to say that the glare of the Authority and the media are capable of achieving a political solution.

Formation of the largest mass

According to preliminary results, the Islamic Dawa Party and its allies in the coalition of the rule of law headed by Nuri al-Maliki and victory headed by Haider Abadi; have won a total of (67) seats, and could have the coalition to form the nucleus of the most numerous bloc. Followed by a 54-seat bloc. (49) members of the largest party bloc in parliament, followed by the Dawa bloc (preachers and their supporters) with approximately 35 seats.

In our pre-election study, we mentioned that the blocks of the rule of law, the rule of law and the wisdom are the most consistent during the course of alliances and the formation of the government and within the parliament, because each has only one head led. The State of Law bloc, which includes 9 parties, is in fact one faction that believes in one program and one president, Nouri al-Maliki, and most of its members are of advocacy roots. In contrast to the state of law version of 2014,

As for the 6-party Ssaroun bloc, its internal cohesion will be strong as well. There may be differences within it between the Sadrist Islamic trend and its communist allies, liberals and nationalists, because of the marginal impact they have on the bloc's decision. But these differences will not have an impact on the cohesion of the bloc, nor will the secession of these secularists from the mass of others influence in its strength; because the vast majority of its members are from the party of integrity who believes in one leader, Mr. Moqtada al-Sadr.

It will not be different with the bloc of wisdom, which includes only one party believes in one leader, Mr. Ammar al-Hakim.

On the other hand, the two blocs of victory and conquest are the least cohesive; the victory bloc includes members of (13) parties and factions, including ( members of the Virtue Party, 12 Sunni members of the Party of Good and other parties and independents, (4) members of other parties and entities; each of them has a leader, a sponsor and a president, and private interests. These entities will not sacrifice their seats or electoral gains in order to get Haydar al-Abadi to head the government. He has only 12 seats within the coalition; Representing some preachers and their supporters. Therefore, it is not excluded to break the block of victory, unless the parties gathered important political interests at the stage of forming the mass of the absolute majority and the formation of the government. The members of the Virtue Party are under the patronage of Sheikh Mohammed al-Yaqoubi, a tender movement headed by Faleh al-Fayyad, and the Party of Goodwill headed by Khaled al-Ubaidi. ; Independent blocks and allied with other Sunni blocks.

For the Fateh bloc of 18 parties and factions, it was expected that there would be some fragmentation in its internal decision; there were loyalties to its various leaders; especially the three most influential leaders: Hadi al-Amiri, Qais al-Khazali and Jamal al-Brahimi (Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes) Badr is the largest bloc, and its secretary-general (Hadi al-Amiri) heads the coalition. However, the Fatah alliance is still cohesive; because of the psychological and political harmony between the factions of the Fatah alliance, and the existence of an ideological reference to collect them and prevent their disintegration; despite the existence of conflicting wills within them. The victory coalition lacks these two elements of cohesion.

And through an overview of the reality of the Iraqi political map in the stage after the results appear; we see that the Shiite blocs have remained divided into two main points of equal initiators:

First: The axis of the rule of law and conquest: (72) seats.

Second: the axis of Saron and wisdom: (74) seats.

As for the alliance of the victory, it remains confused between the two axes, because it lives with the concerns of losses and gains and its confusing calculations, especially the accounts of the president's retention of the position of prime minister and the fragile internal situation of the coalition. And the Gulf. The majority of the members of the Dawa Party and the Shura Council will lose the support of most of the members of the Dawa Party and the Shura Council. Those who do not see the party's interest in the alliance with others are in isolation from the rule of law. A third central in the leadership of the Dawa party is headed by Sheikh Abdul Halim Zuhairi. It will also increase the power of the Tehran reference and the general axis of resistance and the region's Shiites if they agree to an attempt to isolate the rule of law.

And at the level of the Sunni or Kurdish blocs; especially the Kurdistan Democratic Party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the National Coalition and the coalition of decision and the solution party; its classification on one of the two Shiite axes is not possible until now; because who governs coalitions form the majority parliamentary bloc and the formation of the government are the external pressures first, Personality and party; secondly, national slogans were shaped in the form of interactions. Thus, the Sunni and Kurdish political blocs and their symbols offer close interests to the psychological and political kinship, and are allied with the axis that guarantees the greatest interests.

Therefore, it remains difficult for the two Shiite axes to unite to form the largest bloc; because they encounter basic obstacles; some of them are linked to their numerical size or the nature of the positions of the regional and international axes concerned, specifically the American-Israeli-Saudi axis and the Iranian Shiite axis, Many of which mean that the Shiite parties are abandoning basic principles or gains at the expense of the interests of the majority (Shia) population, which is not allowed by their political and religious constituencies.

Coalitions form the largest bloc

One of which includes the rule of law and conquest with a part of victory, and the other includes the others and wisdom and with them the other part of the victory; they face a closed road; to collide with basic obstacles; including the numerical size and their ability to polarize , Including the nature of the positions of the regional and international hubs concerned. Therefore, the two axes tended to move closer to reality. However, its paradoxes are not understood by some political parties, or are surprising to some neighboring countries that do not know the facts of the Iraqi religious and political meeting, such as Saudi Arabia. Part of this movement has resulted from the emergence of an understanding between Fatah and others to form the nucleus of an alliance to form the largest bloc; in preparation for the expansion of the alliance to include the five large Shiite blocs. Perhaps this alliance represents the fait accompli; considering the interconnected relations between the blocs; Fatah al-Fateh will not relinquish its strategic alliance with the coalition of state law, and the two parties remained in close coordination with the Al-Nasr coalition. While Sason finds himself bound by his alliance with Wisdom and his understandings with part of the National Coalition. All this is preceded by the main factor of the Iranian mediation to contain the differences of the Shiite factions and bridge the relations between their blocs, which General Sulaimani was led away from the lights, and patience and diligence, which meet the position of Najaf.

Thus, alternative scenarios for the alliance to form the largest parliamentary bloc, leading to coalitions of government formation, were confined to four scenarios:

1 - alliance between the coalition of the Islamic Dawa Party; any state of law and victory, and will result in the formation of a bloc of (67) deputies, which makes the negotiating position of the new alliance with the other blocs comfortable. The alliance of coalitions will not conflict with the commitment between the rule of law and the Fatah; on the one hand, it will strengthen their unity from the Dawa Party's negotiating power, and may ensure that the prime minister remains in his possession and prevents the party from officially breaking.

2 - Alliance between the conquest and the rule of law and the bulk of victory. And join them automatically coalition will and competencies; bringing the number of members of this alliance to (100) and almost deputy, and could be the largest bloc that will enter the parliament at its first meeting. And turning this scenario to reality on the ground depends on the enrollment of some blocks of the coalition victory. This alliance enjoys the support of the Iranian axis.

3 - the alliance between Ssron and wisdom and part of the victory (block Abadi) and part of the national (mass Allawi); to form (90) seats almost.

The entry of all five major Shiite coalitions: Sarun, Fatah, Victory, the rule of law and wisdom in one alliance, and the addition of small blocs; to form a bloc of (195) deputies; the largest bloc that will form the government comfortably. And through the attempts of understanding between the conquest and the rest and part of the victory on the one hand, and the alliance between the other and wisdom on the other, and the freezing of the dispute between others and the rule of law on the third hand; you will find the Shiite blocs themselves in one alliance.

However, this alliance will not represent a return to the National Alliance (Shiite); because blocs are going, Fatah and victory include members of the year. And the entry of the National Coalition and some of the Sunni factions and the two main Kurdish factions in the coalition will be a de facto; which raises the embarrassment of the Sunni members and secularists and Communists in the victory and victory in front of their audience to stay in their coalition; considering that the new alliance cross-sects and ideologies, My leadership is victory and rest for the same reason. In addition, the presence of about 30 Sunni members in this coalition means that the choice of the new Shiite prime minister will not be the exclusive preserve of Shiite deputies or Shiite Islamist deputies. It is an important national address, although it is in fact formal. And thus will announce the formation of the largest bloc of (216) deputies, the largest bloc the most numerous in the history of parliament.

The formation of a disbanded opposition bloc, which hinders the work of the government, will anger the axis of the people who will move towards the opposition and move it vigorously towards angry reactions. Which leads to further crisis in the Iraqi street; to the fall of the government, and perhaps the collapse of the entire political process. Here is the rejection of the Najaf and Tehran references to isolate any Shiite bloc from participating in the government.
Candidate for the new prime minister

The scenario that fits in with the thinking of the reference of Tehran and Najaf, and the most representative of their practical minds, is a scenario of bringing together all the Shiite parties in one alliance as much as possible, and not isolating any Shiite party, so as not to turn into an opposition to the government and an obstacle to its movement. , Or deviate from the general Shiite orientation. This is the code of sustainable practical compatibility between Najaf and Tehran. As for the Americans and the Saudis, they encourage any scenario isolating Nuri al-Maliki and some factions of the Fatah bloc; although this isolation is rejected Tahrania and Najafia; as well as collide with the realities of the field.

And that the dispute over the name of the next prime minister is the most important at all among the Shiite blocs; it will all have to choose a compromise candidate correspond to the five large blocs, and the acquisition of each coalition on the benefits of government sites.

The formation of the alliance of the largest bloc assumed between the coalitions of conquest and the rest of the wisdom and the rule of law, victory and patriotism

Five scenarios for the candidate for prime minister:

1- Haider al-Abadi remains in office for a second term. This possibility is faced with an Iranian veto, opposition to conquest and the rule of law, as well as the requirements of others and wisdom and some blocks of the victory coalition.

2 - put forward a compromise candidate from the Islamic Dawa Party; as a leader in the party Tariq Najm or others. This possibility is met by an Iranian and Najafi welcome, support for the rule of law, and the requirements of a vehicle from Surun, Fatah and some of the victory blocs.

3 - put the name of Faleh al-Fayadh as a compromise candidate of the alliance of victory; a substitute for Abadi. The Iranian mediator supports this option, as well as the non-objection of the rule of law and Fatah, and US and Najaf approval.

4. Hadi Al-Amiri's candidacy for the Fatah alliance. This possibility faces many obstacles; first: the Iranian position is not enthusiastic to be the new Prime Minister of the factions supported by the crowd. The second is the reluctance of the coalition of victory and wisdom, and the requirements of others.

5- The five Shiite blocs agree on an independent candidate. An option adopted by the Suron Alliance and the Wisdom Stream. This formula may not be satisfactory for the Dawa Party, but it will solve the other blocs' complex of the continuation of the Dawa party in office.

It is perhaps realistic to exclude Scenarios I and IV; they clash with fundamental obstacles, while Scenarios II and IV are the closest to reality. The fifth scenario is weak, although it can be achieved.

Despite the reality of Scenarios II and III, each also faces some obstacles, but they can be overcome. The most important obstacle to the survival of the post of prime minister in the hands of the preachers; the pursuit of the representative of Haidi al-Amiri for the post, or an alternative candidate, and the wisdom of the removal of the post from the Dawa Party, and the unwillingness of "Ssron" and national to remain in the possession of the Dawa Party. With reference to the fact that they are not interested in the candidate; insofar as they agree to their terms and ensure their interests through them; whether they are slaves, Amiri, Fayyad, Tareq Najem or any other candidate. While maneuvering wisdom and patriotism on the contradictions between the four largest blocs to maximize their aspirations of benefits.

What raises the bulk of the obstacles to the survival of the post of prime minister in the possession of the Dawa Party; is a step to put forward a compromise candidate representing the rule of law and victory together. While the victory coalition will not stand alone in front of two blocs that excel in it, namely Fatah and others, and they have the right to have an ambition in the premiership. Therefore, the Dawa Party has no chance of retaining the premiership unless its coalitions unite, because it is the only formula capable of raising its fortunes.

The scenario of nominating an independent prime minister is a possible scenario, as we have mentioned; but it will result in a paralyzed and failing government, a weak prime minister in his performance, movement and decisions; though deep in his ideas and rhetoric, strong in character and efficient in his professionalism; Between the parties through the elections, and clashes with the demands of these parties entitlements, which is self-evident, and is contrary to the basis of the parliamentary system of parties. But the prime minister will be transformed from an independent figure into a new party over the course of the days; forced or not, and will automatically lose his independence; if he insists on imposing it on himself; because the nature of the first authority imposes on its president the party and the bloc and the assembly of the faithful and supporters in a systematic and organized manner; . The new party will form the independent prime minister four years later. As the next elections approach, the party leader will be the former independent president, who will run in the elections at the head of a new coalition. But if he plays, the results of the election will certainly fall.

The result would be Iraq's loss of four more years in a futile futile experience. And if there are those who imagine that imposing conditions on the head of the independent government and taking pledges from him; guaranteeing the continuity of his independence and the creation of his immunity against the bloc, and his support in the movement and performance; it is very important, and deal with reactions. Therefore, it is natural; indeed necessary, that the Prime Minister of Iraq be a partisan figure; we have accepted this or not, because it is consistent with the party parliamentary system in place in Iraq.

Thus, the next prime minister either be a compromise candidate of the Dawa Party, and represents both the coalition victory and the rule of law, and takes from their points together, which applies to Tariq Najm, or to be a consensus candidate among the five Shiite blocs, one of the coalition victory or conquest, Each bloc has its own points, which applies to Faleh al-Fayadh, who is also a former cadre of the Dawa party. But who are the blocs that will sacrifice their points for the benefit of a candidate who does not have a seat or has a number of seats? Some parties believe that solving this dilemma lies in not subjecting the post of prime minister to the rules of calculating points. This solution may work for an independent candidate who is not counted on any party. If the candidate is partisan or classified on a bloc, this solution will be rejected by other parties.


https://annabaa.org/arabic/authorsarticles/16346