World Bank: 4.2 percent growth expected in the Middle East and North Africa 2015

أكتوبر 9, 2014

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Will increase growth in the Middle East and North Africa in the form of slightly next year, compared with his record this year and in 2013, according to the Observatory economic outlook for the region of the World Bank Group, which pointed to a rate of 4.2 percent on average ».

Did not rule out the report issued by the Observatory, the possibility that «this rate up to 5.2 percent, in the event of increased domestic consumption, and eased political tensions that will lead to attracting investments in Egypt and Tunisia, and the resumption of oil production in Libya in the form of full».

She said World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa Inger Andersen, said that «violent conflict in Syria, Iraq and Gaza, and Yemen and Libya and its effects on Lebanon and Jordan, has cast a pall over the prospects for economic growth for the region». But not overlook the endowment in the region of «is huge potential in the youth of the learner and its strategic location and its natural resources, and makes it imperative for the international community to join hands to support the recovery as it did in 1944, when Europe was mired in conflicts».

The report stated that the «growth will fall in these countries because of conflicts in the region, including the civil war in Syria, and the control of« organizing the Islamic State »over large areas of Syria and Iraq, and the devastating war last in Gaza, and the continuing insurgencies in Yemen».

As for countries to transition, he surmised that the report «recover the growth rate to 3.1 percent in Egypt, and 2.7 percent in Tunisia, and 4.6 percent in Morocco». But monitoring «bump stands in the way of attracting local and foreign investments needed to achieve sustainable growth, and is the disruption of the macroeconomic reform agenda is completed and that the reform of the subsidy system».

The growth rates will remain in Algeria and Iran «in a range between 2 and 3 percent, and an average of 5 percent in high-income countries (all exporters of oil and gas in the Gulf region)». But it can «challenge a range of structural problems and potential vulnerabilities in the global oil market, its ability to record high growth rates in the future».

The focus of economic Observatory for Middle East and North Africa on the harmful effects of the high cost of support systems in the region. In the Middle East and North Africa «without growth potential, and high rates of unemployment, air pollution and traffic congestion in urban areas, and undermine the severe scarcity of water resources in the agriculture sector. The report considered that the support systems of energy «contributed to the creation of these development challenges», stressing the need to «be one of the most important priorities of the reform and policy makers».

He announced, chief economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank Shanta Devarajan that «energy subsidies and restrict competition encourages the production-intensive to capital, and then the inhibition of labor and weaken staffing levels, what contributes to the spread of unemployment in the region».

With rising energy prices, «will shift resources towards light industry and construction, and other sectors intensive use of labor, as well as some smaller companies the most vibrant and active».

The report noted signs «supports the existence of a positive relationship between fuel prices and the growth of per capita GDP, and job creation, and the performance of the sectors of transport and water».

He urged the governments of the Middle East and North Africa to «cut energy subsidies to create an active and vital economy and intensive use of labor, and backed by the movement of Imran extensive and productive agricultural sector».

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