Mnt Goat Friday Update - "We wait for the New “Lower Denominations” " Part 1 of 2
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Mnt Goat Friday Update - "We wait for the New “Lower Denominations” " Part 1 of 2
Admin Sat Dec 19, 2015 9:01 am
12/18/2015
UU6847 – “We wait for the New “Lower Denominations” ” by Mnt Goat
Hello Everyone,
Today I need to give you yet more pieces to the puzzle to currency reform and so read this section very carefully. It can get confusing real fast if you don’t read it carefully and clearly.
Iraq is meeting their commitments to pass needed legislature and the beginning of the new year seems to be moving upon us as time seems to be moving faster and faster.
We have great expectations for the first part of the first quarter of 2016 as a new RV window and it is just around the corner. Hang in just a little longer all you dinar investors. This IQD currency reform is about to come to a conclusion, at least the part that we want….lol….
But let us not take any thread of information and turn it into any hype and lie to anyone about the timing of this RV. Please verify your information. If you do not you take the responsibility of the info you pass on to everyone thus you become the culprit of misinformation. Yes- be responsible for your own actions! Lying is still lying even if you do not intend it to be so. The best of intentions is not always the best as it still hurts many people nonetheless.
Bank screens, memos to banks, speeches in the mosques, tickers across the bottom of Iraq TV screens tell us very little and is NOT confirmation of anything nor can be used as verification. These events have they ever proved in the past reliable. I have been told to watch carefully now what the CBI says and does. This is where our attention should not focus. This is being told to me now by the CBI themselves.
So where do you think we should be focusing now?
Today’s News
Today is Friday December 18th and yes we are fully now in the third week of December already and still no RV.
Many events seem to converge on the month of December and recently we heard news of also January being pivotal. How do these events relate to our inevitable RV?
So in focusing on the actions of the CBI - In my last news letter I reviewed with you the exchange process within Iraq but not so much with the average citizen but between the Banking Sector and the Central Bank.
I decided it was time to review these procedures with you so you can better understand how the process works and know it is not that simple just to “pull the trigger” whenever you desire to revalue a countries currency especially when there are underlying factors involved to “switch out” their old inflated post war currency to the a newer more permanent currency and at the time significantly increase its value. The important part too in all this process is not to destroy the economy in a time of already economic crisis.
As a result of my 12/16 news letter (LINK) many replies challenged my information with the problem in the currency auctions. They claimed it was DINAR the CBI is selling and not US dollars. Really? I find it very frightening that you think they are NOW selling dinars and not the US dollars. How can you be so misinformed?
I thought I made it very clear in my explanation on 12/16. I did not lie to you. It is US dollars being auctioned off. I told you to be careful too it could get very confusing and so obviously many of you did not read my news letter carefully.
YES- it is supposed to be DINARS. Yes – that is the original purpose of the auctions to sell the 3 zero notes to the banks. How else could they distribute them? But those days are over. Where have you been? Do you now know anything about the progress of the currency reform? Who has been providing you with your information?
I explained the gap in the currency in 2013 caused by the positioning the economy for the RV as there was major push to get the 3 zero notes out of circulation from 2009-2012. The RV was supposed to happen in 2012-2013 but thus the RV did not happen. Please go back and re-read (or read) my 12/16 news letter for more explanation of this matter. I do not have time or patience to write that book again…lol….)
So this gap caused a rush on the US dollar in Iraq from the CBI to fill this gap. Can I say it any clearer. So they reverted from dinars to the US dollars in the auctions. Now they must reverse this demand again back to dinars but do it for a demand for the new lower denominations and not the 3 zero notes. Why would they now want to be auctioning off more 3 zero notes? Oh God ! This is the last thing they would want to do at this point of currency reform. It would lose years of work and planning and they would have to redo most everything. It does not make any sense.
So today out pops an article..coincidental?. If this does not convince you then I give up on you. It is US dollars being auctioned off …lol..…..lol….
But in this regards I must say this - this is a perfect example of what seems to be the problem in this dinar community. Everyone wants to be the expert, to be the guru, and shoot off their mouths to show how smart they are. They know so little and think they know so much.
However they don’t want to put in the time, do the homework, to stay up late at night reading countless articles or talking hours away from their families to bring you real and precise information. They grab onto any thread that might “suggest” an RV.
So my recommendation once again is this - Don’t shoot your mouth off unless you verified your information first. Stay calm and cool and JUST LISTEN ! I am totally open to clarification of my mistakes but you better first come prepared and be able to defend your challenge to me with FACTS.
I also want to say I will step down anytime from doing my news letters. Just tell me when you are ready to do them and that all the news you bring will be accurate, precise – NO Hype, NO Rumors, just the FACTS. Then I will gladly stand off and let you take the lead. Wow that would be nice!
I quote from the article below –“ the statement that the Iraqi Central Bank to continue buying and selling DOLLARS at 1166 dinars” .
You can also read the last paragraph in the article to see that the dinar value to buy the dollars started at 1166 but with the demand for the US dollar so high the banks are willing to pay commissions, etc,. that makes 1190 dinars to buy one US dollar. The CBI gets $21 commission. So where does this extra 3 dinars go? Is it corruption? Who gets this money and why? It is artificially high at 1190 and should be 1166 because of the necessity to use the US dollar over the dinar.
I rest my case ! ….lol…
Article Begins
TODAY THE CENTRAL BANK SELLS $ 162 MILLION
2015/12/17
{Baghdad: Euphrates News} central bank sales recorded on Thursday at the end of the weekly auction for the sale of foreign currency rose slightly to sell $ 162 million, after selling $ 161 million yesterday.
According to a statement of the Central Bank received by the agency {Euphrates News} a copy of it, "The size of the amount sold today reached 162 million, 173 thousand, and $ 408, priced at 1166 dinars exchange rate to the dollar, and with the participation of 24 banks, and 15 companies for the fiscal conversion."
He added that " the amount of remittances and credits amounted to 143 million, and 703 thousand, and $ 408, while the quantity sold in cash 18 million, and 470 thousand dollars.
"and the statement that" the Iraqi Central Bank to continue buying and selling dollars at 1166 dinars, "adding that" the sale of remittances price 1187 dinars / USD, including the commission of the Central Bank of $ 21 dinars per dollar, with total cash sales price of 1190 dinars to the dollar / dollar, including the commission of the Central Bank of $ 24 dinars per dollar. "
Article Ends
I have demonstrated to you that all these arguments over whether we will see a reinstatement or a revaluation, a low initial rate i.e. 80 cents, $1.14 or $3.91 is all a moot point. I gave you proof and it is the process that drives the initial rate and not an RV. Whether you like it or not this is the process. It will be what it is and you being hopeful or anything different is not going to change the process.
Some now say they are distributing the lower denominations in Iraq. Really? I have shown you how this is was an isolated incident and has been stopped.
LOWER DENOMINATIONS ARE NOT BEING DISTRIBUTED !
I shown you why a bank or two may have done this prematurely. Many of you don’t want to believe me and since you must find even the smallest thread, an ounce of intel, once again to substantiate your idea that the RV is happening any day / any minute / every weekend stuff. Well first of all even it they were finally distributing and using the lower denominations they would need a significant increase in its value to do so. Do you even know this factor? Do you even know the process. Do you see a significant rise in its value?
The CBI also told me that they would guide the citizen through the process when the time comes. They so far have been keeping their promise as we have read many articles already about currency reform and just where they currently are in the process. Folks it is no secret. They are not doing this currency reform process behind our backs or trying to fool us. So if you don’t hear if from the CBI it is not factual and just stupid rumors being spread by ignorant people once again to hype you up and suit there own purpose. What could this purpose be?
So let me give all these intel “gurus” an example and maybe I can clarify the confusion they once again have spread to the dinar investment community by not verifying their information first before passing it out to you. Are they really helping you or preventing you from fully understanding?
For example: We know that now nearly 80-90% of the currency used in Iraq is US dollars. In Iraq they can now pull out of their wallet one US dollar in the store and buy a dozen eggs. So if they used the lower denominations instead it would take a suitcase full of the new lower denominations just to buy that same dozen of eggs. Which would they rather carry to the store? A suitcase or your small wallet?
It should be obvious to you now that they will not yet want to surrender their US dollars since it is more convenient to use them in the marketplace over the lower denominations. This is not rocket science folks.
So the only way the lower denominations could be plausibly distributed in the economy is that the banks could have loaned them out in desperation to begin making money off this asset that is sitting in their bank vaults (in some cases) for months and months. Banks are out to make money on their money and not to let it sit in their vault. But as I told you the CBI stepped in when they learned about this practice and shut it down.
So once again the moral to the story is PLEASE, PLEASE verify you information first before spreading it around or at least tell everyone it is just RUMOR or CONJECTORE and not yet fully verified. And don’t hype it up or try to sound convincing until it is verified. Is this too much to ask?
Incidentally this rumor was very easy for me to verify with my contact in the CBI. Do you have such a contact?
Update: Currency Reform
We still await for the “official” word from the CBI to allow the distribution of the new lower denominations. We know this must first be accompanied with a significant increase in value and we are told it will be a 1:1 par value with the US dollar.
This is NOT the RV but an inflation adjustment and only an incentive to “dedollarize” the economy and reverse the trend in demand for the US dollar thus increase the demand for the new lower denominations and thus allows to slowly increase its value to the point the IMF allows a full blown RV. The IMF needs this trend to reverse but first these other actions must occur to cause it to happen.
This process is not an “official” float (as many will try to tell you) and we may never realize these rates even on any global exchanges (thus be able to go to the banks and exchange) since the IQD will not be reintroduced to the global exchanges until after the full blown RV occurs may a week or two late.
I am telling you nothing new here. I have explained this all out to you in yet more detail in my previous news letters. This is the state we are in and we just have to wait.
The fact that the budget is moving along now is great news. Now we need the National Guard and Amnesty laws and I do not believe we will see any next move in the currency reform until we get these laws – at least I would be very surprised if we did….lol…lol…
Friday Update - "We wait for the New “Lower Denominations”" Part 2 of 2
Update: Needed Laws
Iraq's parliament passed on Wednesday the 2016 budget. The President of the Republic is expected to ratify the budget in the next few days.
The budget consists of $88.2 billion, based on projected oil prices of $45 per barrel but in reality oil is averaging only $36 per barrel and so we can see they will have a deficit again.
There is also oil being pumped out of Kurkirk providence, revenue that Baghdad may never see since Kurdistan made a deal and is allowed to sell this oil on their own (new oil agreement). In return they only receive 13% oil revenue shares now from Baghdad. It is a better deal for all involved. So from this article it is obvious some HCL deal was made or else they never would have completed and passed the budget.
Article Begins
IRAQ'S PARLIAMENT ADOPTED WEDNESDAY A 2016 BUDGET OF $88.2 BILLION
Baghdad (AFP) - Iraq's parliament adopted Wednesday a 2016 budget of $88.2 billion, based on projected oil prices of $45 per barrel, according to a copy received by AFP.
The budget includes oil production the federal government does not now control and envisions a rise in oil prices, meaning revenue may fall short of projections.
Parliament speaker Salim al-Juburi announced that the budget had been approved, but did not provide further details. The 105.8 trillion dinars ($88.2 billion at the 1,200 dinars/dollar rate in use within Iraq) was little changed from the 106 trillion dinars the cabinet proposed last month. It projects a deficit of $20.1 billion (24.1 trillion dinars), but there are two significant factors that could undercut a projected $68.1 billion in revenue.
Firstly, it envisions oil exports of 3.6 million barrels per day, including a total of 550,000 bpd from Iraqi Kurdistan and Kirkuk province, a large part of which is under the autonomous region's control.
Kurdistan has been exporting oil independently and is likely to continue doing so barring a deal with Baghdad, meaning $9 billion in revenue may not materialize. The budget is also based on an oil price of $45 a barrel, a significant increase from Iraq's November average of $36.
And with the US Congress set to lift a four-decade ban on oil exports and the OPEC cartel deciding against cutting output, prices could remain low.
Iraq has been especially hard hit by low oil prices, which come as it wages a costly war against the Islamic State group that overran large parts of the country last year.
Article Ends
Next I want to bring to you news that has been a long standing debate for all you dinar investors looking for this RV. The question has always been this – Does the USA need to pass and support the IMF Reforms prior to any RV of the IQD currency? Was Iraq being held hostage over these reforms? We know the USA and the IMF must be in agreement over any RV for Iraq and can prevent the RV at will.
So now it really does not matter and is a moot point on its connection to the IQD RV since a compromise was negotiated with the IMF and the reforms will pass in USA congress anyway. So now even if it was a factor holding up the RV it no longer exists.
I have to say I find it funny how now this issue is just now resolved, when we are waiting for the distribution of the lower denominations to kick off the last part of this currency reform for Iraq. Is this timing coincidental? Something is holding back this last piece.
Article Begins
CONGRESS SET TO APPROVE IMF-GOVERNANCE OVERHAUL
Deal would give China, other emerging economies more power at emergency lender
An employee counts renminbi bank notes at a Bank of China branch in Changzhi. The U.S. appears set to ratify a deal that would give emerging markets such as China greater power at the International Monetary Fund.
By IAN TALLEY Dec. 16, 2015
WASHINGTON—U. S. lawmakers look set to ratify a five-year-old international deal to overhaul the governance of the International Monetary Fund that gives emerging markets such as China greater power at the emergency lender.
Lawmaker approval would resolve a long-running grievance by emerging powers that their voice and vote at the shareholder institution doesn’t represent their growing economic heft in the world.
Congressional leaders agreed early Wednesday morning to include the changes in a catch-all spending bill, which could become law in the coming days.
“We look forward to the outcome of the legislative process,” said IMF spokesman Gerry Rice.
U.S. lawmakers have stymied modernization of the fund’s shareholder governance for years, fomenting resentment among the IMF’s emerging-market membership.
The U.S. Treasury Department repeatedly warned that failure to ratify the deal would undermine U.S. leadership abroad due to disenfranchisement of China and other industrializing nations at the world’s last-chance lender.
Officials warned that recalcitrance by U.S. lawmakers could accelerate a move to other international financial institutions not backed by the U.S., such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which was launched this year.
If Congress approves the governance changes as now expected, India, Brazil, Turkey and other countries will have more voting weight at the IMF in line with their contribution to the global economy. Under the governance overhaul, China’s new voting shares would make the world’s second-largest economy the third-biggest shareholder at the IMF, moving it ahead of several European nations.
The deal will also bulk up the IMF’s firepower, shifting emergency reserves borrowed from member countries during the financial crisis into the fund’s normal lending account. Critical to Washington, the U.S. would hold on to its veto power over most major decisions at the IMF.
Article Ends
So at this time is appears that the news is very quite coming from Iraq. We are at this lull again and this usually means something good is about to pop. It always does. Seems a clear, blue sky is about to come to us as the storm is about to pass.
We know they have to pass the National Guard law very soon. We know the Parties law was fully effective on Tuesday and we saw the Anti-Terrorist law now also fully implemented as it was posted in the gazette.
I described to you in a past news letter how the timing of these three new laws was very significant for establishing the needed security of Iraq for the RV. It was not coincidental on their timing and how it was managed. So there is one piece left to this puzzle and we wait for it. Will it come before the end of the year. I believe this past piece (the National Guard law) must be passed in parliament and ratified prior to the USA letting the RV go. Could this too be a reason for stalling the RV, as it seems now to be stalled for some reason.
We were told a month ago that they would revive the Customs & Tariffs and the implement a new Income Tax also in mid December. Still no word on this progress but we know there is pressure for both and articles over the last couple days told us this. We know they need a value to their currency for both of these efforts or they will fail. My personal feeling is that they were a bit premature in their timing of announcing these efforts I the past, thinking the RV would have certainly occurred by now. We probably will not see anything on these until after an announcement of an increased value to the lower denominations and maybe even after the revaluation of the currency.
We witnessed the very first meeting of the Federation Council (state Congress) over last weekend and its connection to the Reconciliation effort. We now see Saudis moving back into their embassy for the first time in 20 years and this is all good for the reconciliation effort.
Today we see in the passing of the 2016 budget compromises being made with Kurdistan in oil revenue sharing in return for holding on to full revenues of Kurkirk region oil, something I have talked to you many times would happen and was in the new oil law (amendment to HCL). This reflects to us this new oil law is a done deal or it would not be reflected in the budget and their budget would still be under negotiations and not already passed. But it is now passed and will be ratified shortly.
Update: Fighting ISIS
Kurdish forces backed by coalition air strikes have repulsed the most serious attack by Islamic State group in Iraq in five month.
Among the sites targeted by IS was Bashiqa, where Turkish forces have recently been training Iraqi Kurds, sparking a row with the Iraqi government.
Meanwhile at the UN the 15-member Security Council adopted a resolution aimed at starving IS of funds.
It urges countries to "move vigorously and decisively to cut the flow of funds" to IS, such as by preventing its smuggling of oil and antiquities.
One more item today:
Let’s not forget to keep praying for the success of THESE IRAQI AND COALITION SOLDIERS. I believe their success is in part some of the acceleration of the process we are now witnessing.
“Lord, protect Abadi and all who stand with him in righteousness, the Iraq and Coalition Soldiers who are fighting the good fight against terrorism, that they would be shielded from the enemy and would be Victorious against them! We ask that the Victory comes swiftly and healing of the Iraqi peoples and all whom have been effected by these evil doers can begin! Amen!
Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!
Peace and Luv To Ya All,
Mnt Goat
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