Mnt. Goat News Brief Wed. 4-5-17 Part 1 of 2

4/5/2017


 
April 5, 2017 Mnt Goat News Brief
 
Hi Everyone,
 
I bring you much news today.   
 
More rumors to debunk. So this week many believe that Iraq has in fact already revalued. Really? Here we go again….lol….lol… They say they have many confirmations of it. Really? Oh- but they are hiding if from us? Really?

We just have to wait our turn until they “roll it out”. Really? These rumors tell us that it has RV’d in-country to $100 = 140 dinar. Really? Oh- but I thought it just RV’d to $6.00 per IQD last week. So which is it?

Do you see just how silly all this nonsense is? When the IQD does actually have any significant value change it will be all over the news, Iraq will have to educate the average citizen and you will surely know. You will not have to guess or debunk rumors. It will be very public and very apparent. I am not saying there will be celebrations in the streets or long bank lines in Iraq either so don't twist my words.



More news……..
 
Yet another confidence boost aimed at Iraqi economy. This one may be the starting pistol on Iraq’s Road to becoming a market economy. To be sure, Iraq’s B+ credit rating is still deeply entrenched in speculative, or junk territory. The low rating reflects what Fitch analysts called political risk and instability associated with the conflict-ridden country that’s “among the highest faced by any sovereign rated by Fitch.” Yet as the ISIS conflict lessens and reconciliation efforts are  underway, along with solid oil reserves and other sectors to build upon, Iraq could have serious growth potential,” said Stephen Simonis Sr., chief currency consultant at online currency broker FXDD Global.
 
As a marker for big institutional buyers like hedge funds and sovereign wealth arms, Fitch’s vote of confidence could mark the start of a broader shift among investors about Iraq’s long-term potential. The upgrade could be pivotal for a country still considered besieged, but considered by a handful of savvy market watchers to be a potential diamond in the rough.
 
Folks I have to tell you that the news coming out of Iraq has changed its tone. It is no longer all about fighting ISIS or the political rivals and bickering but rather it has moved on to seriousness about the Iraqi economy and financial sectors. It is now all about bringing the needed investments into Iraq and to grow their economy.
 
My personal opinion is we are on the verge, the very edge of a huge major change in their economy. If you have any brains at all you can see it will not be much longer until they have to (forced to) to switch out of the “artificial”, “program” rate and get relief from  the UN sanctions that are now holding them back. I believe right now even they are struggling without a reasonably valued currency, one that can be marketed globally and relieve their exchange restrictions on the currency.  
 
I am very optimistic that the UN will allow Iraq an exit from many more Chapter 7 – sanctions or maybe move them to Chapter 6 as related directly to running their “closed” economy. What I mean is such as paying everyday importers, progressing ahead with the project to delete the zeros and movement of their currency on the global exchanges and money markets. This is the key!
 
What does this mean for us? As long as they are doing as the IMF and UN have laid out for them in the Stand-By-Agreements (SBAs)– there is no reason to believe the UN (with the helping hand of the IMF) won’t support a return “international acceptance and integration”…and that is all any of us really care about…...right? This is when we go to the bank…lol…lol….
 
So the question we all really want to know is… do they even have to be fully out of sanctions or just a lessened version of Chapter 7? 
 
So out pops this article this week on conclusion of Iraq from Chapter VII sanctions. So what exactly is pm Abadi asking for?
 
Quoted from the article – Baghdad: al-Furat News) Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, "within the next two months will be consensus on the exit of Iraq from Chapter VII".
 
I want everyone to read this article. It does not say partial exit or only certain remaining parts. It says “exit of Iraq from Chapter VII”. It is very clear and concise. I fully believe this is a total exit from sections of Chapter VII mandates within the next 2 months, more importantly the financial and economic sanctions.
 
This is WOW news for all of us. Come’on folks. Iraq has been under sanctions now since the early 90’s invasion, and more strict sanctions on their currency since 2003. It’s now 2017, that’s almost 17 years of strict sanctions. Isn’t it about time to relieve them of these sanctions? How can they possibly grow their economy with them still in place. Have they learned their “political instability” lessons over the Nori al-Maliki years? Could this too be now a cause of caution for the UN in granting any relief?  
 
As always my comments are in italic RED.
 
Articles Begin
 
Kirkuk governor calls for the government to apply Article 140 of the Constitution immediately

 
(Folks – all they have to do is implement the constitution that they themselves agreed to adhere many years ago, yes – they still bicker over it but it is the law. If they did obey it, many of these ongoing issues would go away. With the influx of refugees coming back into Iraq this will be desperately needed to assist in resettlement and entitlements.)


{Kirkuk: Euphrates News}
 
04/03/17
 
Confirmed the administration of Kirkuk province, the need for the application of Article 140 concerning the future of Kirkuk.
 
He called on the governor of Kirkuk, Najm al- Din Karim today , according to a statement to his agency {Euphrates News} received a copy of today’s federal government and the House of Representatives to "uphold the principles of the Constitution and the need for the application of Article 140 concerning the future of Kirkuk, which the previous federal governments have neglected their application since 2005". (More on implementation of the Iraqi constitution when dealing with oil? This time Article 140, Oh-– but many of these so called  intel “gurus” told you these laws don’t matter as far as getting the RV. Really? Well mr. Guru we are seeing differently, just as I have been saying all along. Again – No Hype, No Rumors…just the FACTS)

And it demanded the federal government to "immediately start the application of Article 140 and to full duties in this regard , as stated in the Federal Constitution." 

He noted that "Kirkuk 's privacy is different from the other provinces of the Kurdistan region, and that the Iraqi constitution has put mechanisms to solve their problems and should be adhered to apply
 
04/04/17
The source added that the Prime Minister has proposed to both Nizhervan Barzani, Prime Minister of the Kurdistan region, and Najmuddin Karim, governor of Kirkuk, to submit proposals to the Iraqi Council of Representatives on the activation of Article 140, and set them with ceilings and time periods fixed, to complete this file, without the policy of double standards.
 
Iraq: Confidence is in the Air
 
At a major Iraqi business event on Monday April 3rd, there was a strong sense that Iraq’s fortunes are turning a corner, with the Islamic State group (IS, ISIS, ISIL, Da’esh) on the retreat, and substantial export funding newly available for projects in the country.
 
More than 250 delegates attended the Iraq Britain Business Council (IBBC)‘s Spring Conference in London, with half of those flying in from Iraq.
 
Amongst detailed discussions on topics such as energy, finance and technology, several soundbites captured the overall mood of the conference:
“Confidence has returned to Baghdad — it is in the air! Baghdad is confident again, and it’s absolutely wonderful.”
 
 
This confidence boost may be the starting pistol on Iraq’s Road to becoming a market economy.
 
War-torn Iraq recently got an unexpected boost on its way to becoming an investment hot spot, which may take its next step sooner than conventional wisdom suggests.
 
Even as military forces wage a fierce offensive against ISIS, global ratings agency Fitch upgraded last month Iraq’s outlook to stable, based largely on the country’s improving public finances. (remember the CBI is looking for STABILITY and SECURITY, two buzz words that keep appearing in all the articles from the CBI, IMF and the UN in general,….can you say revaluation…..?)
 
To be sure, Iraq’s B+ credit rating is still deeply entrenched in speculative, or junk territory. The low rating reflects what Fitch analysts called political risk and instability associated with the conflict-ridden country that’s “among the highest faced by any sovereign rated by Fitch.”
 
Yet as a marker for big institutional buyers like hedge funds and sovereign wealth arms, Fitch’s vote of confidence could mark the start of a broader shift among investors about Iraq’s long-term potential. The upgrade could be pivotal for a country still considered besieged, but considered by a handful of savvy market watchers to be a potential diamond in the rough. (Still remaining is the SECURITY part which means to fully liberate Mosul. This article is telling us right up front.)
 
“Some analysts say that investors believe that with solid oil reserves and other sectors to build upon, Iraq could have serious growth potential,” said Stephen Simonis Sr., chief currency consultant at online currency broker FXDD Global.
 
“Clearly this can be looked at from either side, as the willing investor will point out the huge risk/reward possibility as the upside is very enticing,” Simonis told CNBC. “The doubting investor will say the region remains too unstable and the situation remains far too volatile.

(Many of us know that, as an investor, the best time to get into an investment (to make real money) is not invest once it starts to shoot up or at the top but instead you buy low and sell high. So should this apply to any investment?  Why not also apply this same principle then to Iraq’s economy as an investment? We see in this article they are considering it and maybe it is NOT necessary to have perfect stability in Iraq to make some real money. In other words take some risk (as we all have done in buying the currency) and wait it out for the long haul as the economy grows, so will your investement.)


 Iraq remains a country to approach with caution, analysts say, roiled by an ISIS insurgency and civil strife. Yet Fitch’s revised outlook could be a green light for buyers of Iraq’s assets, especially at a time when smaller institutional and private investors are seeking long-term opportunities.
 
In fact, Iraq’s stock market has already been running with at full steam since at least last year, with investors discounting an end to a bloody conflict that’s lasted since the 2003 invasion. Some are looking ahead to the reallocation of military spending and the potential boost to infrastructure spending and economic revival.
 
While foreigners have been mostly absent from the equity market for the month of March, some are already looking for signs that the Fitch decision could reverse this dynamic.
 
“Overall, foreign interest in Iraq continues to go through a transformational change in the eyes of global institutional investors,” Ahmed Tabaqchali, chief investment officer of Asia Frontier Capitals Iraq Fund, told CNBC.
In fact, Iraq’s sovereign risk premium has narrowed in an environment of rising yields, just after the country tapped capital markets with a second $1 billion bond offering.
 
“It seems logical to conclude that this implies favorable interest in Iraq and that it would likely be followed by foreign direct investment and eventually by equity inflows,” Tabaqchali said.
 
Although Iraq joined other OPEC members in a production cut — a challenge for the country’s oil-reliant economy — some analysts believe the oil sector is managing to stay afloat in an environment of lower prices.

.Mnt. Goat News Brief Wed. 4-5-17  Part 2 of 2

4/5/2017


 
Part 2:

Abadi: Anti – terrorism apparatus has become the first force in the Middle East
 
Twilight News / Iraqi Prime Minister General Commander of the Armed Forces Haider al-Abadi / said on Saturday that the anti-terrorism apparatus of the Iraqi army has become the first force in the Middle East.
 
This came during his visit to the headquarters of the anti-terrorism system, which includes the elite forces have received training at the hands of the US military, which serves as the head of the spear in the ongoing military campaign to expel Daesh from Mosul.
 
A statement by the Office of the Abadi responded to Twilight News, he said that al-Abadi met with officers and the ranks of anti-terrorism apparatus, and praised “their role in the fight against terrorism and achieve victories on Daesh,” asserting that “the device has become the first force in the Middle East.”
....



He said the Prime Minister that “the heroes of anti-terrorism apparatus have two characteristics different in that one Ataatovr in any army of the world’s ferocity and strength in the fighting and humanitarian sympathy on civilians.”
 
He continued Abadi, saying, “We will not contain the Aldoaash we will not allow their survival in Iraq.”
 
Here is my commentary:

Okay – so can I get real with you on the status of Mosul liberation? Or do you want to continue listening to those who keep telling you it’s all completed/done? So now let me give you a short, realistic historical perspective to help you understand some timelines in this effort. Remember these are not my timelines but timelines from the GOI. This is all important because if you follow the GOI news on Mosul it is directly linked to the continuance of the project to delete the zeros from the CBI (and we know this will lead to a significant change in the value of the dinar). Coincidental?
 
In this analysis we can go back to 2003 or even later but I will start at the time-frame when we know for certain they postponed again the project to delete the zeros in late 2015. I hope this will make sense to everyone and bring some REALITY to all these lies and nonsense people are spreading.
 
Late 2015 – project to delete the zeros is officially postponed again, said will continue in EARLY 2017. At the same time we are told that Mosul will be fully liberated by end of 2016. Coincidental? Do you think the CBI is talking to the GOI?
 
Winter, Spring, Summer of 2016 – Iraq Army continues to clear regions throughout Iraq (Anbar, Fallujah, Basra, Qatar, etc,,) as they steadily advance closer to Mosul region. We are told the effort is tough but they are steadfast and it is only a matter of time. They still await full support from the USA. So far mostly fly over bombing raids from Aircraft carriers. Finally Qatar airbase is secured and USA can conduct cheaper, better bombing missions. Three other bases also scheduled to supply air and logistic support in future.
 
Fall 2016 – begins the effort to liberate Mosul, by end of 2106 they realized they have reached only half of their goals and liberated areas and had not yet begun the push on Mosul region. Why they waited so long until Oct to begin the push? This is still a great mystery for everyone but I am hearing they needed logistical and ground support from the USA and this was not going to happen without a renewal of the Status of Forces Agreement (SFA) that expired on Dec 2011. During this timeframe from late 2015 until Oct 2016 we read multiple articles on the SFA and the terms that USA needed. Getting rid of the Oboma administration also helped in resolving this matter.  
 
Late 2016 – we are told by the GOI it will be yet another 3 months until “full” liberation of Mosul can be achieved. This put us out to the end of March timeline. Then just weeks later we are told by the finance committee of the GOI that the “project to delete the zeros” is also  “postponed indefinitely”. Coincidental?  Do you think the CBI is talking to the GOI?
 
We heard this many times before and usually it’s because they cannot project another time-frame to give to the citizens. Most intel “gurus” didn’t want to believe this new time-frame and as usual poo poo the real news and made up their own story and kept sticking to the EARLY 2017 RV time-frame and were unable to adjust to reality (as usual). Then these same gurus do something even worst. They make up fake intel again to substantiate still an EARLY 2017 time-frame for an RV by fabricating an RV. Seems they can’t even coordinate their fake intel since they all have different rates and stories as to what is going on. This should have been a signal to everyone as to just how fake their news was (is still).


Late March 2017 – again another announcement and we are told that the IRAQI ARMY is still working on the liberation of the western side of Mosul region and it is taking longer than expected. Many articles on this and so you can’t say it’s all fake news media, as some still claim it is all made up to “fool us”. Really? How dumb!
 
Very late March -Early April 2017 – the GOI came right out and told us they projected yet another 2 weeks more to clean up small pockets of ISIS resistance in western Mosul region. They have trained snipers for this purpose. This brings us to mid April. They even showed us a picture of the graduating class of Iraqi soldiers from the USA run sniper training school. Could it get any clearer, any more real than this? What the hell more do you want from the news media? How much clearer can it be? Why are most still denying the reality of the timeframes? We are all disappointed it is taking so long but we have no control over it. This does not mean you have to lie about it.
 
As April 2017 progresses, onward– the absolute onslaught of articles on global entities confirming support for Iraq potential, seminars being run on the future economic and financial possibilities in Iraq is staggering. We have never read such great news. This is just what we would expect at this time. PM Abadi is working closely with the UN to relieve Iraq of Chapter VII sanctions. Yet some deny that these are the sanctions we need lifted or that they even matter one way or the other. Really?

Folks there is no mystery about what is taking place. It is right in front of your noses only you can’t see it or deny it from existence. It is not rocket science folks. Why do many feel they have to come up with some weird reasoning of why this is coincidental. Folks -this is the progression of activities that must take place. Nothing is coincidental. Abadi is working to get Iraq out of sanctions. Why?  This is just what he should be doing at this time. He is fully aware these sanctions will stifle the Iraq economic and financial growth if they are not lifted very soon. They need these lifted in order to move forward with financial reforms to the next level. Did maybe the attendees at the Arab summit tell him these sanctions might be roadblocks or hurdles?
 
Early April 2017 – PM Abadi meets with the UN during and after the Arab summit. Talks about working together to “exit of Iraq from Chapter VII”. It is very clear and concise. They did not talk about parts of Chapter VII, they talked about ALL of Chapter VII. Whether they move certain mandates from Chapter VII to Chapter VI to do it is a moot point since, if they do, it will still allow Iraq to function in the direction they need to move. Who cares? So who the hell cares if it’s a tomoto or tomato? It’s still juicy, tasty and healthy.
 
We argue over the most silly issues in these forums and that’s because we don’t truly, fully understand what we are talking about. We don’t funnel our attention to the ultimate goal, we get side tracked and go down rabbit holes and we deny what they tell us from Iraq and thus exclude reality from the conversations. WE don’t listen to those who know since we think we know it all since we are “gurus”. We want to pretend we are so smart. Then to top off all this nonsense, we turn around afterwards and keep asking – “why is the RV taking so long”….lol…lol….I am sorry but I gotta laugh at just how these so called intel “gurus” operate…..lol……lol…..   
 
Articles End
 

 



So in my last post one of the readers again is out more to bash than to listen to reason. He said:
 
“I continue to shake my head, side-to side! You're a beginner when it comes to " the Media". We all learned in the 5th grade that the media is less than 50% accurate. Further, whatever news is released, is what the government has filtered for you to read. So we have to consider your sources whenever we put any degree of credibility on your posts. Right now we can't see that your position on the RV is anything more than that of a "CAN KICKER"
Here's hoping you will consider upping your game.”
 
So in response it is only fair that I add my comments. For one thing I am offended by your remarks. I am a very busy person. I take the time out of my busy day to read and read and process the news, then write my newsletters. I do this so many can learn in an intelligent many about their investment. I do not appreciate someone/anyone who comes into these forums/chat rooms or news sites and does a “pigeon drop” on our heads and insults me.
 
Do you know what this “pigeon drop” is? It is someone who thinks they know it all, drop in once in a while, bash you with their BS, yet do not make the effort themselves to find solutions either or bring solid, factual information to the sites to help. So is your information any better? What information? What did you just bring something of any value to dinar recaps other than a pigeon drop? Are you part of the solution or part of the problem?
 
So what are your conclusions then and I do not mean rumors, I mean based on FACTS. I am open all news but you better back it up with FACTS. You do know the difference between FACTS and Rumors? 
 
So what are the FACTS in someone that keeps telling you the RV is going to happen each and every weekend, yet they can’t reveal their “secret” sources. They give us no FACTUAL basis other than a rumor someone told them. These are the same people who tell us they “can’t be bothered reading the news” from Iraq. Of course they don’t want to read the news, they can’t understand it even if they did.
 
Of course they have to act as though they are big shots and know it all so this will lend them credibility. They seem to recycle these rumors over and over again in some kind of rhythm and think we are all too dumb to realize it. You have to remember I spent 20 years in the military and my specialty was the intelligence corps. I am used to processing data, analyzing it and making some sort of sense of it. It is what I was highly trained to do. I am not always absolutely correct in all my conclusions but I will say I am far better than all this nonsense and bullshit I am hearing. 
 
The point is - I have told you many times already I do know who their sources are and I can tell you they are far, far from creditable. So today I will spill the beans again as to who their sources are. Their source are:
 
1) an Iraqi citizen in the USA who has relatives in Iraq. They call the people and ask them what is happening in Iraq. That’s intel? I can tell you better what is happening in Iraq by reading the articles.
 
2) next they rely on their “banking” contact to call them when any promising new news appears at the bank. They simply have a bank manager that they have become friends with.
 
That’s it folks. I have exposed the extent of their sources.
 
So if this is what you mean by being a “CAN KICKER” I guess I plan to continue kicking the can and pursue my form of intelligent intel gathering based on FACTS without any hype or passing on any foolish rumors. I do not like rumors and I am intelligent enough not to play those foolish, childish games of using them for profit. I will continue to read as many articles as I can get, look for trends and pass on any reasonable, sound conclusions based on this process - you can count in it.

Sorry to disappoint you as I have no plans to change my approach. So if you do not agree I simply suggest you read someone else’s news, “up your own game” and live with it. Thus, see where it takes you. Obviously you are reading Mnt Goat for a reason but you want me to change my approach to suit your needs? Not going to happen so you can keep “shaking your head from side to side” but I have to tell you it might hurt after a while….lol….lol…..    
 
Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, Just the FACTS!
 
Auf Wiedersehen
Much love to ya all,
Mnt Goat