Mnt Goat News Brief for May 5th

May 5, 2017 Mnt Goat News Brief
 
Hi Everyone,
 
I bring you much news today.   
 
First I have to clarify something today about an article I presented by MP Al Bajari. It was not done so to create a lot of stir. It was simply an article that was recycled by the news media. I thought I should present it since it was recycled and seemed to follow the 5 year plan to rebuild Iraq (like Marshall Plan). Do you want to know the truth? So let’s not bury out heads in the sand just because we don’t want some event to happen and thus ignore it. I know it sounded crazy to wait for another 5 years. This does not change the reality. Instead let’s research about each article intelligently as see if we can make sense of it.
 
I thought I commented on my opinion clearly, apparently I did not. So I will clarify again. I think it is all past tense and we should believe the CBI had to wait for 5 years 2012 to 2017. But they would have to use the 2012 timeframe to base the beginning of the 5 year mark and this is key to the article. 


This gets tricky since the CBI has also told us there were 3 attempts so far to RV (in 2011, 2012 and 2015). So why not use the 2015 date then in our analysis making the five years 2015-2020? Or use the 2011 date for five years 2011-2016? You see the problem when you do not THINK first and then leach out!
 
So let’s analyze each of these timeframes.
 
1)  5 years – 2011-2016: we can eliminate this one since the article was first published in 2014 and we know it is now recycled;
 
2)  5 years -2012-2017: this timeframe makes the most sense since the CBI has told us many, many times already to watch for 2017 timeframe for the completion of the phase we want in the project to delete the zeros. In fact they even said to watch for 2017 as the year at latest for the country to take off;
 
3)  5 years – 2015-2020: Nothing ever told to us to indicate the CBI intends to wait until 2020. This 2020 date has not popped up anywhere. Has it? Am I missing something?
 
So we know they had to halt the next phase of the project to delete the zeros due to SECURITY reasons with ISIS / Daesh. But remember the 2012-2017 timeframe seems to be the most important and emphasized most often. We are just about in the middle of 2017 already.
 
Remember she also says this project is ongoing and is ready for the next phase. But for this next phase to take place they must wait for the security and stability. Is this this all they are waiting for? I think it is along with some needed laws, which I feel are only being held up in order to coincide with the liberation from ISIS threat. I believe we see these laws in a “basket” of laws very soon.
 
Why do I think this way? Am I a mind reader of the CBI? NO- they CBI directly told us this in many of their recent past articles. That is how I know. This is how I know as a FACT not conjecture! Can they change their minds? YES – anything is possible but why would they? They have given us no indication or reason why they have or would change their minds.
 
So what is this next phase of the “project to delete the zeros”?
It is to raise the value slowly and watch the economy grow. The value will rise as the economy grows, so the value is solid. But when they do this increase they must also slowly launch the newer notes, the lower denominations since street venders and shops keepers will soon not be able to make change for these larger notes (1,000, 5,000, 10,000, 25,000, 50,000).
 
Just think of yourself going into a store today in USA and buying something for $5 USD. Then you hand the clerk a $100 note. Do you get a strange look? What about if you handed them a $25,000 note. Do you think they would actually have $24,995 in change to give you? This is probably more than their sales receipts for the entire day. They will tell you to go to the bank and get it broken down into smaller bills. So this is the first issue but in reality to everything else it will not happen as much as you think because of all these measures they have already implemented. These measures will make the launching of the lower denominations  much easier.
 
Remember the next issue. This effort was to decrease the paper notes (hard currency) in circulation by 2/3. So this effort we are told was tremendously successful there are not a lot of the larger 3 zero notes in circulation. Many ask them why would they launch a 50,000 notes in 2015 if they do not want the 3 zero notes in circulation? Remember that these 50,000 notes did give the citizens some relief in 2015 since they did not yet have all the provinces on electronic banking. Remember 50,000 is like having a $50 note in USD conversion. So it was easier to buy large to mid range priced goods. Also the merchants needed them for ease of conversion to USD at auctions. But the CBI told us these are meant only for long term inter-banking transactions and will be also collected off the streets.   ​

The second issue is that the project to delete the zeros was dependent on many other tools being implemented to help the removal of the notes. For instance, electronic banking is one. So people in Iraq don’t carry a lot of cash anymore and if your providence is now rolled over to the new  “electronic” SMART card, they are using the cards at the stores instead. POS machines are not installed and soon 24 electricity will be available, as we have been reading. So the SMART card and POS machines are other tools.
 
The banks have encouraged the citizens to bring their cash and deposit it in the banks. Some banks are offering 20% interest in simple savings accts.
 
They have a major challenge getting the citizens to trust the banks. Can you see why? But this trust is coming, since it is mandatory now in order to get paid you must set up a bank account and tie it to the SMART card with the govt. They also have CBI guarantees of deposits. Do you remember this new  law?
 
So if someone does need cash they will have the ATM machines for quick cash. But these machines are programmed for the lower denominations and not the large 3 zero notes. The CBI is trying to limit the larger 3 zero notes as much as possible.
 
So when a member of the Parliamentary Economic and Investment Commission, MP Noura al-Bajari, confirms that “the initiative to revalue and delete zeros from the Iraqi Dinar is ready for implementation by the Central Bank” she is meaning they have completed all these measures I mentioned above. Did I  miss any? So now why would they have to wait then 5 years? Soon Security and Stability is coming back to regions hit by ISIS. Do they intend to wait 5 years during this rebuilding effort? I can’t see how they can wait or why they would wait, since not the entire country of Iraq has been devastated by ISIS and there is still plenty of revenues and meat on the bone in their economy to plunge to the next step. I personally believe they need vast amounts of investment capital now more than ever and an attractive value on the currency will help in this effort.
 
I hope this helps everyone?
 
As always my comments are in italic RED.
 
Articles Begin
 
Reuters: Five years, billions of dollars needed to rebuild Mosul: officials (5/3/17)
 
By Ahmed Aboulenein | MOSUL, IRAQ
 
Mosul's wrecked roads, bridges and broader economy will take at least five years to repair and need billions of dollars of development that Iraq's government will struggle to afford, officials returning to the battle-scarred city said.
 
The airport, railway station and university were all destroyed in the long fight to dislodge Islamic State militants from their main Iraqi stronghold.

Iraqi government forces backed by a U.S.-led coalition have now retaken the eastern half of the city - letting regional councilors return for the first time in 2-1/2 years to survey the damage.
 
"After Mosul is fully liberated, we need a working plan to restore things to the way they were before 2014 when Islamic State took over," Noureldin Qablan, deputy chairman of the council covering the surrounding Nineveh province, told Reuters. He sat back in his office in the heart of Mosul, the province's regional capital, an unremarkable building apart from its new concrete fortifications and the teams of armed guards surrounding it.
 
A gun lay on his desk, next to his phone and piles of paperwork.
Outside, bustling markets have sprung back into life on the eastern banks of the Tigris river. Over on the other side of the river, Islamic State fighters are holed in, defending the densely-populated Old City with snipers and suicide bombers.
At the heart of their territory sits the medieval Grand al-Nuri Mosque and its famous leaning minaret, where Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared his caliphate in July 2014. Experts fear the fragile brick structure could still succumb to the fighting raging around it.
Iraq's army has said it expects to expel Islamic State from the rest of the city by May.

"WE ARE NOT GETTING ENOUGH SUPPORT"
The 34 Nineveh councillors, who have been meeting in other cities during the occupation, have already started drawing up plans to rebuild Mosul, though they are still were not sure where the money will come from, said Qablan.
 
For the first six months, local authorities would focus on restoring security, water, electricity and fuel, and on the return of those displaced by the war.
Under the plan, there would then be a two-year period of reconstruction and the initiation of a reconciliation process followed by 30 months focused on attracting investment and developing the economy.
Some of the early repair work could cost as little as $5,000 a house, Qablan said.
 
But even that would strain budgets that he said were under-funded by the central government in Baghdad.
 
"In 2013 we were allocated 738 billion dinars, yet after all this destruction we get just 52. It is very hard to reach our goals with this sum, so we are counting on foreign grants."
 
Council officials are in talks with the United Nations, international aid groups and friendly states, he said. Italy was already helping rebuild a hospital.
 
Outside on the eastern side of the river, foreign investment was already flowing back in, in the form of market stalls heaving with Turkish and Iranian fruit and vegetables, replacing the less plentiful Syrian produce that had dominated under Islamic State.
 
Tobacco shops, banned by the ultra-hardline Sunni Muslim group, have reopened.
 
Dozens of men sipped coffee or tea inside The Golden Cafe, looking at their phones and surfing the web - activities that Islamic State had limited to monitored internet centers.
 
"We are happy and comfortable. Life is good," said one customer Emad, smoking hookah outside. "I feel out of this world."
 
(Reporting by Ahmed Aboulenein; Editing by Maher Chmaytelli and Andrew Heavens)
 

Central Bank: Beyond the financial crisis and the coming days, promising
 
The central bank, announced on Sunday that Iraq has overcome the financial crisis and the coming days are promising, noting he Amajaov the decline in hard currency reserves. (talking about the promising of not having to use the reserves to pay debts, this is part of the financial stability)
 
The Central Bank of Iraq adviser Walid Idi, in a press statement that "the crisis austerity and fiscal deficits as a result of lower oil prices in the recent period has ended and Iraq overcome the financial crisis and the coming days are promising."
 
He added that "Iraq will become a country of foreign investment as a result of global competition of foreign companies to invest in the re-devastated cities after recovered from Daesh."
 
"The entry of foreign Iraq companies will reflect a positive outlook and will contribute to attracting major countries to rebuild the devastated areas and the holding of joint agreements for investment as well as trade exchange and activating tourism and oil industry," stressing that "holding oil agreements with Arab and foreign countries will bring hard currency to the country and raise the reserve the central bank of the currency. "
 
He continued Idi, he "to Amajaov hard currency reserves fell in the central bank and the decline of my time and will improve in the near future.

UN official: Iraq’s experience in a unique global community reconciliation deserve transfer
​
Branded UN Mission Coordinator for Humanitarian Affairs in Iraq, Lisa Grande, experience community reconciliation in Iraq as “unique”.

Grande said a statement to the Cabinet Secretariat said all Iraq a copy of it, during the meeting the Secretary General Mehdi relationship that “Iraq’s experience and what has been achieved is a unique experience worth to transfer as experience in meeting the challenges in community reconciliation in conflict areas in the world.”

Gharanidi added that “Iraq was proceeding with the help of the internationalcommunity in stabilizing and then rebuild all State facilities and community.”(oops there that naughty word again – STABILITY….lol…lol…)

The Secretary General stressed that “community reconciliation is essential and important in restoring stability to the liberated areas, especially in Mosul and Nineveh.” (oops there that naughty word again – STABILITY….lol…lol…
So this one sentence gives us some insight as to their definition of what they mean by stability.)

He added, “the important role of the United Nations and its development in restoring stability to the liberated areas through the transfer of experience and translate their experiences into the ground and the Iraqi Government face a challenge in Mosul town social diverse multi.”


US Ambassador: Abadi is committed to introducing our companies to Iraq and will push for reforms
 
Baghdad balances News US Ambassador to Iraq Douglas Silliman, said Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said, was committed to the introduction of more US companies to do business in Iraq.
 
This came during a meeting with members of the ambassador of the US Chamber of Commerce in Baghdad during their annual meeting the embassy.
 
He said Silliman, that the current time is the best for years to press for the achievement of reforms and to look for opportunities in Iraq.

He added, “The US companies have a lot to offer to Iraq, and demand is growing on US companies and we are here to help strengthen trade relations in the Iraqi market. (This is just where we would expect the Trump administration to be at this time. He is going to get a foothold in Iraq to support their economy and make a ton of $$ for American companies.)
 
Articles End
 
Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, Just the FACTS!
 
Auf Wiedersehen
Much love to ya all,
Mnt Goat