************ IMF expects growth countries, "the Arab transformation" by 3.8% in 2015

Friday 23 January 2015
| 08:48


International Monetary Fund forecast high growth rates in the countries of the Arab transformation, undergoing political transition, to 3.8% and 4.4% in 2015 and 2016, from 2.3% in 2014.



The IMF said in an update to its forecast for global economic outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, these countries include Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen, excluding Libya from its expectations without explaining the reason for it.

Expects most international reports, the Libyan economy shrinking by more than 20% during the current year, the latest report by the World Bank expects the Libyan economy shrink by 27.8%.

And suffer Libya armed conflict bloody in more than one city, especially Tripoli and Benghazi, the armed battalions are fighting to gain control, as well as a political crisis between the calculated stream liberals calculated and another on political Islam recently increased its unity, what resulted in two wings of power in the country, each having its institutions

The IMF said that there are gains and losses will be achieved countries importing oil in the region of lower oil prices, pointing out that Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria will be affected negatively, down oil prices due to lower workers' remittances, which are a major source of liquidity from foreign its currency, as well as affected foreign direct investment coming from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and tourism revenues.

While the fund said that the level of gains it generally these countries will benefit directly through reduced its oil imports bill, and lower energy costs for support, pointing out that the high availability and low cost of production income may these countries may lead to the growth of domestic demand.

Fund pointed out that the sharp drop in oil prices will raise the gains of the Middle District middle and North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, these countries in 2015 to 1.5% of GDP in 2015.

The Fund maintained its forecast for growth in oil-importing countries in the Middle East and North Africa and Central Asia at 3.9% in 2015, unchanged from the forecast issued last October.

These countries include Afghanistan, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Tunisia.

The IMF said that Morocco leads the countries that will achieve gains Sthsdha oil-importing countries in the region, as a percentage of GDP, up to 4.75%, followed by Lebanon 4.25% and Mauritania by 3% and Jordan 2%, then Egypt and Sudan by less than 1 %.

Fund pointed out that Egypt will achieve significant gains from fuel savings support unless governments tend to reduce retail prices of petroleum products, pointing out that the support bills in Egypt are still high despite recent reforms began.

The IMF said that the oil-exporting countries, which suffer from a financial pressures Iran, Iraq and Yemen will witness a slowdown in growth in 2015.

He pointed out that those countries which have a low financial reserves or are not available they will have to face more pressing challenges to correct public policy trends, pointing out that Yemen, which would lower oil export revenues have a limited impact on the economy compared to other countries exporting oil, started in this direction by planning to collect more non-oil revenues, and the containment of government wage bill, and continue to reform fuel subsidies.

The Fund also pointed out that Iraq, which faces a large financing gap in the draft budget for 2015 will find himself driven to a significant reduction in current and capital spending.

Finance Committee in the Iraqi parliament was reduced earlier this week, the country's budget for 2015 by about 5 trillion dinars ($ 4.3 billion) due to a decline in world oil prices and access to below $ 50 a barrel.

By the end of last year, the Iraqi cabinet approved the 2015 budget, estimated the size of spending where b 123 trillion dinars (105.48 billion US dollars) deficit of up to 23 trillion dinars ($ 19.7 billion), up the price of a barrel of oil, which was adopted by the budget $ 60 a barrel.

As the fund pointed out that Libya is working on a fiscal adjustment through capital spending due to political instability.

The Libyan government has decided emanating from Parliament society in Tobruk (east), headed by Abdullah al-Thani, on Wednesday to close a number of its embassies around the world in order to meet the budget deficit.

The move came one day after the decision of the Court of Libyan accounting, based in Tripoli (west), and the National Conference of the year (the previous parliament, which resumed recently held its sessions), the freezing of all of all the public authorities of the state bank accounts, financed from the budget, with the exception of accounts secretariats deposits, in a move to control public spending, which has risen to significant levels in the past year.

The Central Bank of Libya has demanded Thursday the government urgently take immediate action to rationalize spending, no matter how difficult and painful, to provide the minimum requirements of the actions to be taken to rationalize public spending and tackle the financial crisis.

In Algeria Fund predicted that the resulting decline in current transfers and rising tax revenues to pay in the direction of fiscal adjustment in the face of lower oil prices.

Oil revenues account for 30% of GDP, and 95% of the total Algerian export earnings, and 60% of budget revenues, and rely Algeria on oil revenues to fund their plans for economic and social development according to previous data from the International Monetary Fund



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