April 23, 2015 15:51
Kuwait - Direct said Economic Weekly Shall report, "The recent changes in the oil market, will extend its influence on all over, short, medium and long term. In the short term, it has become expected of oil revenues half the level of a year ago, the ability of American power management in 2015 for each OPEC countries - with the exception of Iran - about 52.1% of the level in 2014 revenues and approximately 46.1% of the level in 2013 revenue, and that the lesser the damage. "
The report, which was obtained by "direct" a copy of it, "that the average level, ie, one to three years, may recover its price to about 70% of the level in 2014 prices rather than about 50% of the rate of the first quarter of this year, but it has to be Some states do sacrifice some level of production. "
The report pointed out that "In the long run, you will lose OPEC role of the product is likely to favor the United States, and the oil production of non-traditional, and will be the movement of oil prices and production extremely variable subject to risk, which is the technical capacity to reduce the cost of producing a barrel of oil is traditional, which is likely to happen over time. "
The report said, "in an article for The Economist in 0.18 April, analysis on developments in the short term, talking about the decline of shale oil rigs to almost half, or from about 1,600 to about 800 excavator, and analysis of the situation of 300 small oil company that produces non-conventional oil, It turned out that one-third has been suffering tough financial situations.
The report pointed out, "but that the production of the United States of oil increased by about 120 thousand barrels per day last March, and two-thirds of those small companies still finances healthy and able to borrow at an affordable price. Assumes the article that the incidence of falling oil prices, may have been the hardest to conventional oils difficult, such as those fields in the North Sea which Schacht became the high cost of production. "
The report predicted, "the most dangerous in our scenario, is that the non-conventional oil became a reality and produce cost-effective, and the passage of time it likely to continue to reduce its production costs."
He pointed to the expectations of The Economist magazine, which is "to reach the level of production of more than 12 million barrels a day - or 15% of world oil production - by 2017, the global economy will grow weak in the future, and China, which changed from the reality of the demand in the oil market during the period 1980 -2008, in the future you will lose 3.5% of the historical growth rates. "
It also expects to The Economist, "In contrast to this, over time, lead to a rise in the production of a barrel costs in the region, and perhaps most importantly, is that they are countries that do not improve the use of resources, Vaguetsadadtha lost a lot of competitiveness, and despite its richness, all complaining about unemployment blatant or compelling, high, and after Each increase of oil revenues, intervention in wars with each other and quickly consume any fat layer formed in vogue oil market time, then do not come back to have enough to rebuild what was destroyed by those wars. "
The report believes that "oil states pass another test with the oil market, the price will go back up the US $ 100 a barrel, for the foreseeable future at least, the United States of America -alta intervened twice in 1986 and 1998 to support the oil market in the past - will disengage countries in the region to weakness in need, according to the Economist, as will produce all its energy needs during the period between 2020-2030. At Prudential states, the mind is what makes the future, and the variables of the recent oil market is substantial, not an option for the petro-states but to rely on her mind in the maintenance its future. "
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